Month: March 2025

Bitcoin Magazine

Is Bitcoin’s Bull Market Truly Back?

Following a sharp multi-week selloff that dragged Bitcoin from above $100,000 to below $80,000, the recent price bounce has traders debating whether the Bitcoin bull market is truly back on track or if this is merely a bear market rally before the next macro leg higher.

Bitcoin’s Local Bottom or Bull Market Pause?

Bitcoin’s latest correction was deep enough to rattle confidence, but shallow enough to maintain macro trend structure. Price seems to have set a local bottom between $76K–$77K, and several reliable metrics are beginning to solidify the local lows and point towards further upside.

The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) is one of the most reliable sentiment gauges across Bitcoin cycles. As price fell, NUPL dropped into “Anxiety” territory, but following the rebound, NUPL has now reclaimed the “Belief” zone, a critical sentiment transition historically seen at macro higher lows.

Figure 1: The NUPL indicates a bullish rebound in sentiment. View Live Chart

The Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple weighs BTC spending by both coin age and transaction size, and compares the data to a previous yearly average, giving insight into long term holder behavior. Current readings have reset to low levels, suggesting that large, aged coins are not being moved. This is a clear signal of conviction from smart money. Similar dynamics preceded major price rallies in both the 2016/17 and 2020/21 bull cycles.

Figure 2: The largest and most experienced bitcoin holders have stopped selling. View Live Chart

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Boost Bull Market

We’re also now seeing the Long Term Holder Supply beginning to climb. After profit-taking above $100K, long-term participants are now re-accumulating at lower levels. Historically, these phases of accumulation have set the foundation for supply squeezes and subsequent parabolic price action.

Figure 3: Long Term Holder BTC supply is rapidly increasing. View Live Chart

Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Signal Bull Market Cross

The Hash Ribbons Indicator has just completed a bullish crossover, where the short-term hash rate trend moves above the longer-term average. This signal has historically aligned with bottoms and trend reversals. Given that miner behavior tends to reflect profitability expectations, this cross suggests miners are now confident in higher prices ahead.

Figure 4: Bitcoin miners are becoming bullish once again. View Live Chart

Bitcoin Bull Market Tied to Stocks

Despite bullish on-chain data, Bitcoin remains closely tied to macro liquidity trends and equity markets, particularly the S&P 500. As long as that correlation holds, BTC will be partially at the mercy of global monetary policy, risk sentiment, and liquidity flows. While rate cut expectations have helped risk assets bounce, any sharp reversal could cause renewed choppiness for Bitcoin.

Figure 5: BTC remains highly correlated to US Equities. View Live Chart

Bitcoin Bull Market Outlook

From a data-driven perspective, Bitcoin looks increasingly well-positioned for a sustained continuation of its bull cycle. On-chain metrics paint a compelling picture of resilience for the Bitcoin bull market. The Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) has shifted from “Anxiety” during the dip to the “Belief” zone after the rebound—a transition often seen at macro higher lows. Similarly, the Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple has reset to levels signaling conviction among long-term holders, echoing patterns before Bitcoin’s rallies in 2016/17 and 2020/21. These metrics point to structural strength, bolstered by long-term holders aggressively accumulating supply below $80,000.

Further supporting this, the Hash Ribbons indicator’s recent bullish crossover reflects growing miner confidence in Bitcoin’s profitability, a reliable sign of trend reversals historically. This accumulation phase suggests the Bitcoin bull market may be gearing up for a supply squeeze, a dynamic that has fueled parabolic moves before. The data collectively highlights resilience, not weakness, as long-term holders seize the dip as an opportunity. Yet, this strength hinges on more than just on-chain signals—external factors will play a critical role in what comes next.

However, macro conditions still warrant caution, as the Bitcoin bull market doesn’t operate in isolation. Bull markets take time to build momentum, often needing steady accumulation and favorable conditions to ignite the next leg higher. While the local bottom between $76K–$77K seems to hold, the path forward won’t likely feature vertical candles of peak euphoria yet. Bitcoin’s tie to the S&P 500 and global liquidity trends means volatility could emerge from shifts in monetary policy or risk sentiment.

For example, while rate cut expectations have lifted risk assets, an abrupt reversal—perhaps from inflation spikes or geopolitical shocks—could test Bitcoin’s stability. Thus, even with on-chain data signaling a robust setup, the next phase of the Bitcoin bull market will likely unfold in measured steps. Traders anticipating a return to six-figure prices will need patience as the market builds its foundation.

If you’re interested in more in-depth analysis and real-time data, consider checking out Bitcoin Magazine Pro for valuable insights into the Bitcoin market.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post Is Bitcoin’s Bull Market Truly Back? first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.

Bitcoin Magazine

How to Measure the Success of a Bitcoin Treasury Company

In the world of traditional finance, evaluating a company’s success usually means tracking revenue growth, earnings per share, or return on equity. But what happens when the core of a company’s strategy isn’t selling products or services, but accumulating Bitcoin?

That’s the question facing a new class of Bitcoin treasury companies. These are publicly traded firms whose central mission is to acquire and hold Bitcoin over the long term. And to understand whether they’re succeeding, we need a fresh set of tools.

This article introduces those tools—new key performance indicators (KPIs) designed to evaluate how well a company is executing its Bitcoin strategy. Many of these indicators have been pioneered by Michael Saylor and his company, Strategy, where they can be seen implemented on their new dashboard. These new metrics may sound complex at first, but once broken down, they offer powerful insight into whether a Bitcoin treasury company is truly delivering for its shareholders.

1. BTC Yield: Measuring Accretion, Not Earnings

What it is: BTC Yield tracks the percentage change over time in the ratio between a company’s Bitcoin holdings and its fully diluted share count. In simple terms: how much more Bitcoin is owned per potential share of stock.

Why it matters: This KPI is designed to answer a unique question: Is the company acquiring Bitcoin in a way that benefits shareholders?

Let’s say a company holds 10,000 BTC and has 100 million diluted shares. That’s 0.1 BTC per share. If, a year later, it holds 12,000 BTC and has 105 million shares, it now holds ~0.114 BTC per share—a 14% increase. That 14% is your BTC Yield.

What makes it unique: BTC Yield doesn’t care about profit margins or EBITDA. It’s focused on how effectively the company is increasing Bitcoin ownership relative to the number of shares that could exist. This is key in a strategy that involves using equity to buy BTC. If management is printing new shares to buy Bitcoin, shareholders want to know: is the Bitcoin per share going up or down?

How to use it: Investors can track BTC Yield over time to see if dilution (more shares) is being offset by accretive Bitcoin purchases (more BTC). A consistently rising BTC Yield suggests management is executing well.

2. BTC Gain: The Bitcoin-Based Growth Metric

What it is: BTC Gain takes the BTC Yield and applies it to the company’s starting Bitcoin balance for a period. It tells you how many theoretical “extra” bitcoins the company effectively added through accretive behavior.

Why it matters: This is a way of visualizing BTC Yield not as a percentage, but as Bitcoin itself. If BTC Yield for the quarter is 5% and the company started with 10,000 BTC, BTC Gain is 500 BTC.

What makes it unique: It helps you think in Bitcoin terms, which aligns with the company’s long-term goal. Shareholders aren’t just watching for more BTC—they want more BTC per share. BTC Gain helps quantify how much more BTC the company would’ve had if it started from scratch and grew holdings accretively.

How to use it: BTC Gain is especially helpful when comparing different time periods. If one quarter shows 200 BTC Gain and the next shows 800 BTC Gain, you know the company’s Bitcoin strategy had a much stronger impact in the second period—even if the BTC price stayed flat.

3. BTC $ Gain: Bringing Bitcoin Gains Into Dollar Terms

What it is: BTC $ Gain translates BTC Gain into U.S. dollars by multiplying it by the price of Bitcoin at the end of the period.

Why it matters: Investors still live in a world dominated by fiat. Converting Bitcoin-based growth into dollar terms helps bridge the communication gap between Bitcoin-native strategy and traditional shareholder expectations.

What makes it unique: This metric offers a hybrid lens—Bitcoin-denominated growth, viewed in fiat terms. But here’s the catch: BTC $ Gain can show a positive number even if the actual value of the company’s holdings dropped (because the metric is based on share-adjusted accumulation, not fair market value accounting).

How to use it: Use this metric to contextualize how much value (in dollars) the company’s Bitcoin acquisition strategy may have created over a period—just remember that it’s not a profit measure. It’s a reflection of growth in stake, not accounting gain or loss.

4. Bitcoin NAV: A Snapshot of Raw Bitcoin Holdings

What it is: Bitcoin NAV (Net Asset Value) is the market value of the company’s Bitcoin holdings. It’s calculated simply: Bitcoin Price × Bitcoin Count.

Why it matters: It gives a snapshot of the company’s Bitcoin “war chest,” plain and simple.

What makes it unique: Unlike traditional NAV used in mutual funds or ETFs, this version ignores liabilities like debt or preferred stock. It’s not meant to tell you what shareholders would get in a liquidation. Instead, it’s just: How much Bitcoin does the company own, and what is it worth right now?

How to use it: Use Bitcoin NAV to understand the scale of the company’s Bitcoin strategy. A rising NAV could reflect more Bitcoin, higher prices, or both. But remember: it’s not adjusted for debt or financial obligations, so it’s not a full picture of shareholder value.

5. BTC Rating: The Leverage Check You Don’t Have to Guess About

What it is: BTC Rating shows how much value the company holds in Bitcoin compared to how much it owes. It’s a ratio that helps you see whether the company’s Bitcoin could realistically cover its total financial obligations, like debt or preferred stock.

Why it matters: This metric offers a clear view of how well a company’s Bitcoin holdings cover its financial obligations. It’s a ratio that compares the market value of its Bitcoin stack to everything it owes—giving you a straightforward sense of balance sheet strength from a Bitcoin-native perspective.

What makes it unique: This metric helps answer a key question: How well is the company’s Bitcoin position covering its obligations? It’s a simple ratio that compares what the company holds in Bitcoin to what it owes. Traditional credit ratings rely on opaque models and institutional trust. BTC Rating flips that by offering a transparent, verifiable view—using public Bitcoin holdings and disclosed liabilities to provide a data-driven snapshot of financial resilience.

How to use it: A BTC Rating above 1.0 suggests the company’s Bitcoin position outweighs its obligations—a strong indicator of strategic flexibility and solvency. A rating below 1.0 may signal over-leverage or exposure to refinancing risk. Watching how this ratio evolves over time gives investors a powerful lens for evaluating whether the company’s Bitcoin-first strategy is being executed responsibly.

Why These Metrics Matter Together

Each KPI gives a different lens:

BTC Yield shows shareholder-accretive growth.

BTC Gain translates that into BTC terms.

BTC $ Gain puts it in dollars.

Bitcoin NAV shows raw Bitcoin value.

BTC Rating tests how that value stacks up against liabilities.

Used together, they give investors a comprehensive picture of whether a Bitcoin treasury company is:

Growing its stake effectively

Protecting or enhancing shareholder value

Managing risk appropriately

One Final Note: These Metrics Aren’t Perfect

These KPIs are not traditional financial metrics, and they aren’t meant to be. They ignore things like operating revenue, cash flow, or even debt service costs. They also assume that convertible debt will convert, not mature.

In other words, they’re tools designed to isolate the Bitcoin strategy, not the whole business. That’s why they should be used alongside a company’s financial statements—not as a substitute.

But for investors trying to understand whether a company is making smart moves in the Bitcoin arena, these metrics offer something traditional tools can’t: clarity on whether management is using equity and capital in a way that actually grows Bitcoin per share.

And in a Bitcoin-first world, that just might be the most important metric of all.

Disclaimer: This content was written on behalf of Bitcoin For Corporations. This article is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be interpreted as an invitation or solicitation to acquire, purchase, or subscribe for securities.

This post How to Measure the Success of a Bitcoin Treasury Company first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Nick Ward.

Bitcoin Magazine

Hardware Wallets: Bitcoin’s Biggest Adoption Barrier

There are roughly half a billion crypto users around the world and, at the most generous estimate, only 2.5% are using hardware wallets. That’s a tiny number, but I’m relieved it’s not higher. 

Why? Because I want people to on-board to Bitcoin by the billion, and I want to see everyone self-custody securely. The consumer hardware wallet industry is one of the biggest obstacles to achieving this goal. And not just to Bitcoin adoption: the whole decentralization revolution is at risk if we don’t address the fatal flaw  at the heart of the world’s most popular wallets. 

Wallets are treading water 

Last year in these pages, Lucien Bourdon celebrated “10 years of the wallet revolution”. There’s a lot I agree with, but one glaring omission. Almost without exception, the ‘leading’ consumer hardware wallets on the market today have barely innovated in a decade. And as every security expert knows, if you’re not constantly advancing, you’re moving backwards. 

The problem isn’t simply that new threats are constantly emerging, it’s that Bitcoin use cases are rapidly evolving. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are no longer ‘just’ stores of value; they are now a medium for all kinds of increasingly complex transactions. Yet hardware wallets’ underlying technology is essentially unchanged from the days when their primary utility was as a secure, offline keysafe. It’s the same with UX, with users still expected to write down their seed words and then squint at a tiny screen every time they want to approve a transaction. 

This isn’t just a Bitcoin problem. The future of security will see everyone safeguarding our most valuable digital assets and sensitive data with cryptographic keys. In fact, the whole decentralized economy depends on what’s inside these wallets – so let’s take a peek.

Trust, Don’t Verify?

Lucien was right to stress that Bitcoin’s strength comes from its commitment to open-source principles. Where I profoundly disagree with him is that open-source has been adopted by “most of the wallet industry”. 

The fact is, the leading hardware wallets continue to be built on closed-source, proprietary systems that users cannot fully inspect. If they can’t inspect, they can’t verify; if they can’t verify, why should users take manufacturers’ claims on trust?

I suspect the reason so many hardware wallets remain “black boxes” is because they have something to hide – like the decades-old smart card technology used by so many of the wallets to which bitcoiners entrust their keys. This tech isn’t fit for today’s crypto use cases,  and certainly not for a future of decentralized security, where we’ll need keys to safeguard everything from our digital identities to access credentials.

A Barrier to Innovation…and Adoption

Hardware wallets’ continued reliance on closed, proprietary systems is not just a security nightmare: it’s also terrible for Bitcoin innovation and adoption.  

Today’s wallets are effectively  walled gardens, where developers must follow restrictive rules and can’t offer any degree of customization for users. This isn’t just control freakery for its own sake; often, it’s a function of the underlying technology. Devices like Ledger need to give every app access to the master seed; obviously, that means they have to be painstakingly reviewed before they are approved (if they ever are). 

If that’s how the App Store worked, we’d still be carrying Nokia 3310s round in our pockets. Instead, we got open ecosystems, a thriving developer community, competition, and a galaxy of brilliant apps. 

That’s what I wish for wallets. When developers can build permissionlessly, they will not only deliver novel functionality and enhanced user experience, but will play an essential role in wallets’ evolution to support (and secure) the ever-growing complexity of bitcoin applications.

Wallets should be a hub of innovation, a place for developers to build the killer apps that will compel people to adopt Bitcoin and blockchain-based services. In reality, an ecosystem like Ledger is the “anti-App Store”, holding back decentralized innovation instead of driving it forward.

Open Your Wallet  

The solution is both simple and essential: transparency. Just as strong encryption relies on publicly tested, open-source algorithms to ensure security, the devices that store cryptographic keys must follow the same philosophy. Open-source hardware and software enable security researchers, developers, and even individual users to audit and verify security measures, reducing reliance on manufacturers’ claims and increasing overall trustworthiness.

Newer, more secure alternatives already exist. Hardware wallets based on open-source microkernel architectures provide a more robust security foundation, allowing independent verification of their safety. These systems ensure that no single company controls the security of users’ cryptographic keys, reducing the risk of hidden vulnerabilities and fostering innovation.

The good news is that only one in 40 crypto users currently owns a hardware wallet. Let’s make sure we give the other 39 a truly secure way to self-custody their digital future – and support the innovation that will attract billions more to adopt. 

This is a guest post by Zach Herbert. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

This post Hardware Wallets: Bitcoin’s Biggest Adoption Barrier first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Zach Herbert.

Bitcoin Magazine

Proposed Bipartisan Legislation Recognizes Bitcoin As A Technology That Supports Democracy

On Wednesday, the office of Rep. Gabe Amo issued a press release stating that Rep. Amo and Rep. Kim (R-CA) reintroduced a bipartisan resolution supporting the use of distributive ledger technologies (DLT), including blockchain, to “support democratic governance, human rights, freedom of information, transparency, and innovation around the world.”

The resolution (the full text of which was not linked to in the press release) urges federal agencies to explore and support DLT and expresses Congress’ commitment to advancing responsible innovation on this technological front.

Rep. Kim commented on the importance of this technology in the press release.

“U.S. leadership in emerging technologies like blockchain not only improves Americans’ lives but also helps us advance transparency in U.S. foreign assistance, human rights, and freedom across the globe,” said Rep. Kim.

“This legislation is vital, especially as we see the Chinese Communist Party exporting its surveillance technologies and authoritarianism abroad. I am proud to join Congressman Amo to lead this bipartisan resolution to ensure the United States shines as a beacon of hope, freedom, and innovation on the world stage,” she added.

The press release also cited how, in Screven County, Georgia, the Bitcoin blockchain was used to safeguard election election results and provide transparency to voters, linking to this article, which tells the story of the event.

Simple Proof, the company that helped Screven County officials commit its vote tallies to the immutable Bitcoin blockchain also recently helped Republicans in Williamson County, Tennessee do the same with the results of its Republican leadership vote.

Simple Proof put itself on the map when it helped to secure the results of the most recent presidential election in Guatemala, the story of which is told in the short documentary Immutable Democracy. Thanks to the vote tallies from the election being safeguarded on the Bitcoin blockchain, the integrity of the election was upheld, despite efforts made to tamper with physical votes once voting had concluded.

The work that the company has done both in the U.S. and abroad is a testament to a point Rep. Amo made in the press release.

“Innovative technology like blockchain helps promote transparency and strengthen democratic institutions around the world,” said the congressman.

While the press release provided evidence of the Bitcoin blockchain being used to preserve democratic values, it didn’t differentiate between Bitcoin and other blockchains, many of which, by design, are less secure.

This post Proposed Bipartisan Legislation Recognizes Bitcoin As A Technology That Supports Democracy first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Frank Corva.