Month: January 2025

Ross is now free. I predict this will be the one good thing to come out of this administration in the grand scheme of things. The reasons behind this pardon were purely political, but regardless of that I am incredibly happy to see Ross reunited with his family and loved ones. Even taking all the accusations against him at prima facie, both those actually charged and those not, Ross has unquestionably served his time.

Actual murders and rapists serve a tiny fraction of the sentence that was levied against Ross, even after multiple offenses in some cases. His sentencing was entirely political, and in no way proportional to the charges brought against him. The severity was so high for one reason: to set an example.

He is not the only example governments have tried to make since 2013. The Samourai Wallet team are currently under house arrest awaiting trial for hosting the backend for a 100% self-custodial service. Roman Sterlingov is in jail for running a centralized mixer, with no evidence other than flawed blockchain heuristics. The Tornado Cash case has developers dealing with cases and jail time in multiple jurisdictions.

All of these go far beyond the pale of what happened to Ross, in terms of legal standing. Ross’s sentence was insanely disproportionate, but the legal basis itself for these other cases is non-existent. They charged them anyway. Some of them, they convicted them anyways. These people are sitting in jail, just like Ross, anyways.

The government is not going to stop making examples. It doesn’t matter that Trump enjoys the benefits of the unregulated monetary extraction possible in this space, it doesn’t matter that Wall Street and D.C. see value they can take advantage of, none of that matters.

These power brokers and figure heads realizing they can set up a grift, or skim money out of the economy being built here, doesn’t change anything. It doesn’t make them fans of privacy. It doesn’t make them fans of true sovereignty for the individual. It doesn’t make them fans of actually free markets that don’t cater to corporate interests preferentially.

We need tools to actually facilitate all of these things, but building them means you are a potential target.

If you actually care about these things, you know this isn’t over. One man who was unjustly imprisoned is free, and that is an amazing thing. He can see his parents again, his wife, his friends, and that is truly a priceless accomplishment.

But this is not over. Not by a long shot. The music came on, people switched chairs, and it stopped again. But it’s still the same game being played, and we can’t lose sight of that. 

Follow Aaron on Nostr or X.

Technically, Donald Trump broke his campaign promise by not freeing Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht on day one of his presidency. (No, inauguration day is not “day zero.”) But as I explained in my previous Take, I wasn’t expecting a literal first day pardon anyways. Even day two exceeds my expectations. Trump delivered, and I’m very glad he did.

When I first heard about Silk Road in early 2013, I was immediately intrigued by the concept of buying and selling drugs anonymously online. To this day, I think darknet markets are the best intermediary step before the war on drugs is ended: It removes dealers from street corners while providing users some level of quality assurance through a public rating system.

Discovering Silk Road was also how I first learned about Bitcoin. I started writing about the digital currency a few months later, and am still at it today. In a way, I owe my career to Ulbricht.

That Ulbricht was sentenced to spend the rest of his life in prison was a miscarriage of justice in my view. Even if you believe he is guilty of everything he’s been convicted of (all non-violent crimes), over a decade behind bars should be long enough.

To be sure, I don’t believe Trump actually cares about Ulbricht; he could have freed him during his first term if that was the case. And Trump certainly has no intent of ending the war on drugs; if anything, he’s about to escalate it by designating cartels to be terrorist organizations and imposing the death penalty on drug dealers. Trump promised to pardon Ulbricht because that would benefit him politically — but to his credit, he kept his word.

Ross is finally free. Well done President Trump, and everyone else who helped make this happen.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Bitcoin appears poised for significant upside movement following a strong start to 2025. However, questions remain about the market’s overall health and whether the current bullish momentum can be sustained over the coming weeks and months. Here, we’ll take an unbiased and data-driven look into the underlying numbers supporting our current trend.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: Bitcoin Data Driven Analysis & On-Chain Roundup

Miner Recovery

The Puell Multiple, a measure comparing miners’ daily USD revenue to its yearly average, suggests that Bitcoin’s fundamental network strength remains strong. Historically, after a halving event, miner revenue experiences a significant dip due to the 50% block reward reduction. However, the Puell Multiple recently climbed above the key value of 1, indicating a recovery and a potentially bullish phase.

Figure 1: Puell Multiple is at comparable levels to previous cycles just prior to rapid price increases.

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Previous cycles show that crossing and retesting the value of 1 often precedes major price rallies. This pattern is repeating, signaling strong market support from mining activity.

Substantial Upside Potential

The MVRV Z-Score, a metric analyzing Bitcoin’s market value relative to its realized value, or average accumulation price for all BTC, suggests current values remain well below historical peak regions, outlining considerable room for growth.

Figure 2: MVRV Z-Score signifies significant remaining upside potential.

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A two-year rolling version of the MVRV Z-Score, which adjusts for evolving market dynamics, also shows bullish potential. Even by this adjusted measure, Bitcoin is far from previous cycle peak levels, leaving the door open for further price appreciation.

Figure 3: MVRV Z-Score 2YR shows a similar perspective to the standard data.

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Related: We’re Repeating The 2017 Bitcoin Bull Cycle

Sustainable Sentiment

The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is currently at a healthy and sustainable amount of Greedy sentiment, indicating greedy but sustainable sentiment. Historical data from the 2020-2021 bull cycle shows that greed levels around 80-90 can persist for months, supporting prolonged bullish momentum. Only when values approach extreme levels (95+) does the market typically face significant corrections.

Figure 4: Fear & Greed shows sustainably bullish sentiment.

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Network Activity

The Active Address Sentiment Indicator reveals a slight dip in network activity, suggesting retail investors have yet to fully re-enter the market. However, this could be a positive sign, indicating untapped retail demand that might fuel the next leg of the rally.

Figure 5: Active Address Sentiment shows we’re potentially short-term overbought.

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Risk Appetite Shifts

Traditional market sentiment is showing improving signals. High Yield Credit appetite is increasing as the macro-economic environment shifts to a more risk-on outlook. Looking at corporate bonds that offer higher interest rates due to their lower credit ratings compared to investment-grade bonds. Historically, there has been a strong correlation between Bitcoin’s performance and periods of heightened global risk appetite, which have often aligned with bullish phases in Bitcoin’s price.

Figure 6: The High Yield Credit cycle is shifting to a more risk-on sentiment.

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Related: What Bitcoin Price History Predicts for February 2025

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics, market sentiment, and macro perspective all point to a continuation of the current bull market. While short-term volatility is always possible, the convergence of these indicators suggests that Bitcoin is well-positioned to reach and potentially surpass our current all-time high in the near future.

For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, recently speculated that Bitcoin could potentially reach valuations as high as $700,000 per BTC. This projection arises against the backdrop of intensifying concerns about currency debasement and global economic instability, positioning Bitcoin as a hedge against vulnerabilities in traditional financial systems. Fink’s remark was not an outright endorsement but rather a reflection on a recent meeting he had with a sovereign wealth fund. The fund sought advice on whether to allocate 2% or 5% of its investment portfolio to Bitcoin. According to Fink, if institutional adoption continues to grow and similar allocation strategies are embraced broadly, market dynamics could drive Bitcoin to such remarkable heights.

Fink made this striking statement during a recent interview, explaining that Bitcoin’s potential for exponential growth is closely tied to fears of economic downturns and fiat currency devaluation. Fink described Bitcoin as an “international instrument” capable of mitigating localized economic fears.

JUST IN: $11.5 trillion BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says Bitcoin could go up to $700,000 if there is more fear of currency debasement and economic instability.pic.twitter.com/WOXclAsjDP

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) January 22, 2025

A Message to the Market

With BlackRock managing $11.5 trillion in assets, Fink’s words carry significant weight, sending a clear message to retail and institutional investors alike. His endorsement transcends personal opinion, serving as a market signal about Bitcoin’s potential trajectory. Long heralded as “digital gold,” Bitcoin is seen as a store of value that can protect wealth from inflation and governmental fiscal mismanagement. Fink’s recognition of this narrative could further accelerate its adoption among traditional investors.

Related: From Laser Eyes to Upside-Down Pics: The New Bitcoin Campaign to Flip Gold

A Timely Forecast

Fink’s prediction comes as global economies grapple with soaring inflation, escalating national debts, and geopolitical tensions that threaten currency stability. Bitcoin, with its fixed supply of 21 million coins and decentralized structure, presents an alternative asset class that is immune to the inflationary pressures inherent in fiat currencies. In this climate, its value proposition becomes increasingly compelling.

BLACKROCK IS BACK.

THEY JUST BOUGHT $600 MILLION OF BITCOIN, THEIR LARGEST BUY SO FAR THIS YEAR. pic.twitter.com/QLAm5eaik4

— Arkham (@arkham) January 22, 2025

BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF: A Signal of Institutional Interest

BlackRock’s deepening involvement in Bitcoin reached a milestone on January 21, 2025, when the firm purchased $662 million worth of Bitcoin for its exchange-traded fund (ETF), their largest daily purchase so far this year. 

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) surpassed the firm’s iShares Gold Trust (IAU) in net assets in October 2024. This milestone was achieved just months after IBIT’s launch in January 2024, highlighting the rapid growth and increasing investor interest in Bitcoin-focused exchange-traded funds.

The Cumulative Bitcoin ETF Flows Chart offers a comprehensive view of the total USD net flows into Bitcoin ETFs over time. Source: Bitcoin Magazine Pro

A Balanced Perspective

While Fink’s projection is undeniably bullish, it remains contingent on the continuation of current economic trends. If global economic stability improves or innovative financial systems emerge to alleviate fears of currency debasement, Bitcoin’s price trajectory may stabilize at a lower level. Nevertheless, Fink’s high-profile commentary underscores its growing role as a legitimate asset class.

Related: David Bailey Forecasts $1M Bitcoin Price During Trump Presidency

Bitcoin’s Next Chapter

Bitcoin’s evolution from a niche digital experiment to a mainstream financial instrument is accelerating. Fink’s remarks may signal a pivotal moment, not just for Bitcoin, but for its broader acceptance in traditional finance. For investors and enthusiasts, this is more than a vote of confidence—it’s a sign that the integration of Bitcoin into the global financial landscape is not only imminent but already underway.

As the world watches, Bitcoin’s role in redefining finance continues to grow. Fink’s prediction serves as a reminder that Bitcoin is no longer a fringe idea but a crucial player in the future of money.