Month: October 2024

Follow Tommy on X.

This interview on the Danny Jones Podcast episode 263 both felt like it was being channeled from my own brain while also hitting me with an overload of new information. It hit the spot, as someone who has long held the opinion that all modern wars and psychological operations are symptoms of easy fiat money, and that the government is simply the biggest criminal cartel that grows large enough to self-legitimize its racket and assumes the role of moral authority. Kruse postulates that the goal of globalist transhumanists is to replace the U.S. Constitution, a document that is designed to protect individuals from government, with the U.N. Charter, a document designed to usurp it and provide tyrannical power to proxies of the industrial military complex.

“I would sit down with, probably, Adolf Hitler before I would sit down with Sergey Brin.”

I wasn’t expecting to hear about Bitcoin when I started listening, but I was pleasantly surprised to hear him bring it up early and often, framed as a kryptonite to the transhumanists he portrays as his “mortal enemy”.

“The reason why Bitcoin content gets removed is because DARPA is not interested in Bitcoin. Their energy to fuel their whole process is cheap fiat money.”

Uncle Jack hits on topics like Kleiber’s law, allodial wealth, DARPA, MK-ULTRA (and it’s subsequent versions), the Stanford marshmallow experiment, JFK’s assassination, sunlight medicine, SV40, cancer, COVID and the jabs, and even invisibility, somehow connecting it all subtly to Bitcoin, with a ‘fix the money, fix the world’ subtext.

“There’s a pattern with the Industrial Military Complex. When they want to do something, they don’t ask for forgiveness, they don’t ask for permission either, they just do it.”

The main ingredient was essentially that the Federal fiat system is a big Ponzi scheme, citing Roth IRAs and retirement funds specifically. And that there is a mortal war waged on us by The State to make sure enough of us die through cancers, wars or otherwise so that we aren’t all performing a bank run.

The Industrial Military Complex is a machine that is powered by cheap money: fiat money. Kruse aligns Bitcoin as a solution to the fiat war machine, which is preaching to the choir for me, but exciting to hear on a non-Bitcoin show with a large audience like the Danny Jones Podcast.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Follow Frank on X.

Bitcoin will not become more widely adopted as a result of intellectual curiosity or because it’s theoretically the best form of money ever. Instead, people will begin to use it because it solves pressing problems in their lives.

So, if you’re looking to foster greater Bitcoin adoption, show someone how they can use Bitcoin to solve an issue their facing.

Hermann Vivier, co-founder of Bitcoin Ekasi, a Bitcoin circular economy in South Africa was given this advice from Mike Peterson, Director of Bitcoin Beach, the world’s first Bitcoin circular economy, and it continues to inform his work.

The broader problem that Bitcoin solves for underserved South Africans is that it provides them with a means to save in an environment in which many don’t trust banks or have much access to other investments. Part of the reason they don’t trust banks is because they’re often charged hidden fees from both the banks themselves as well as local merchants.

Vivier told Bitcoin Magazine that many in the community often purchase goods via layaway programs (buy now, pay later) and are often duped by stipulations in the fine print of the deals.

“You can go in and buy something today, not pay for it at all, take it home and then the merchant starts charging you after the second or the third month,” explained Vivier.

“These credit schemes are quite exploitative. The fees would go up over time as interest accumulates and the residents give the company the right to just draw the money from their bank accounts, but the buyers don’t understand what they’re signing away,” he added.

“After a year, they see there’s still money going out of their account, but in their mind, they’ve already finished paying for this thing, yet they’re still paying for it and they don’t know why.”

Vivier went on to explain that the simple fact that money cannot be automatically withdrawn from a Bitcoin wallet like it can from a bank account provides Bitcoin Ekasi community members with more of a sense of control over their funds.

Rich Swisher, founder of Motiv, an NGO that develops Bitcoin circular economies and helps members of unbanked communities in Perú become more financially independent, also uses Bitcoin to help the financially disadvantaged have more control over their money.

Swisher told Bitcoin Magazine that residents of the communities with whom Motiv works can’t save cash in their homes because of the high likelihood that they’ll be robbed. And many don’t use banks because they charge fees that these residents can’t afford to pay (That’s if banking services are available at all.) Bitcoin provides them with a way to bank themselves, which serves as a financial base for them to start their own enterprises.

“With Bitcoin, they can start a small business that they can run out of their home and run off of their phone,” Swisher told Bitcoin Magazine.

“Over time they see that they can be financially independent. Then, they start seeing that not only do I have a good path going right now, but if it was all taken away from me tomorrow, I have the know-how to redo it,” he added.

“None of this happens without Bitcoin.”

So, does that mean you have to run out and start a full-on Bitcoin circular economy in an underserved community if you want to see more Bitcoin adoption? Absolutely not.

But how hard would it be to show your friend who runs a non-profit how to accept bitcoin for international donations so to save on wire transfer fees or to show a family member how to send an international remittance using Bitcoin instead of Western Union, which charges high fees for its service? Not that hard.

If you want to see more people using Bitcoin, quit the habit of explaining to those around you how great it is, and start showing them what problems it solves.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

As 2024 comes to a close, Bitcoin investors are eagerly eyeing the final quarter of the year, traditionally known for positive price action. With many speculating that a bullish rally may be on the horizon, let’s break down the historical data, analyze trends, and weigh the possibilities of what BTC’s price action might look like by the end of this year.

Historical Performance of Bitcoin in Q4

Looking at the past decade on the Monthly Returns Heatmap, Q4 has frequently delivered impressive gains for Bitcoin. Data shows that BTC often finishes the year strong, as evidenced by three consecutive green months in 2023. Not every year follows this trend however, 2021 and 2022 were less favorable, with Bitcoin ending the year on a more bearish note. Yet, years like 2020 and 2015 through to 2017 saw tremendous price surges, highlighting the potential for a bullish finish in Q4.

Figure 1: Q4 Performance has been historically strong for Bitcoin. View Live Chart 🔍

Analyzing Potential Q4 2024 Outcomes Based on Historical Data

To better understand potential outcomes for Q4 2024, we can compare previous Q4 performances with the current price action. This can give us an idea of how Bitcoin might behave if historical patterns continue. The range of potential outcomes is broad, from significant gains to minor losses, or even sideways price movement. The projection lines are rainbow color coded going from 2023 in red back to 2015 in a light violet shade.

Figure 2: Previous Q4 price action overlaid to today.

For example, in 2017 (purple line), Bitcoin experienced a significant increase, suggesting that in an optimistic scenario, Bitcoin could reach prices as high as $240,000 by the end of 2024.

However, more conservative estimates are also possible. In a more moderate Q4, Bitcoin could range between $93,000 and $110,000, while in a bearish scenario, prices could drop as low as $34,000, as seen in 2018 (blue line).

The median outcome based on this data seems to be around the $85,000 price point. Although this is based on the year end price from these projections, years such as 2021 (yellow line) resulted in considerably higher price before notable pullbacks to end the year.

Is The Median Outcome A Possibility?

Whilst an $85,000 in around three months time may seem optimistic, we only have to look back to February of this year to see a single month in which BTC experienced a 43.63% increase. We can also look to metrics such as The Golden Ratio Multiplier which are showing confluence around this level as a potential target with its 1.6x Accumulation High level.

Figure 3: Golden Ratio Multiplier 1.6x Accumulation High currently at ~$85,000. View Live Chart 🔍

Is $240,000 Even Possible?

Whether Bitcoin can achieve such high values will depend on various factors. An increase in demand coupled with limited supply could propel Bitcoin to new all-time highs. Furthermore, developments such as Bitcoin ETFs, institutional investments, or major geopolitical events could further boost demand. We’re also seeing a similar pattern in this cycle as we have seen in the previous two, with a first wave of large scale market inflows before a cool-off period; potentially setting up a second rally in the near future.

Figure 4: Cycle Capital Flows showing a similar run-up and cool-off period to prior cycles. View Live Chart 🔍

This is probably over-ambitious, Bitcoin’s market cap has grown tremendously since 2017 and we’d require tens of billions of money pouring into the market. But Bitcoin is Bitcoin, and nothing is out of the question in this space!

Conclusion

Ultimately, while historical data suggests optimism for Q4, predicting Bitcoin’s future is always speculative. A third of all of these projections resulted in sideways price action, with one forecasting a large scale decline. As always, it’s important for investors to remain unbiased and react to, rather than predict Bitcoin data and price action.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out our recent YouTube video here:
Bitcoin Q4 – A Positive End To 2024?

As a longtime Bitcoiner, I had to roll my eyes when I saw HBO release a trailer for an upcoming documentary, teasing to reveal Satoshi’s identity. Speculation arose that it would reveal who is Satoshi Nakamoto. After seeing many half-baked attempts to “unmask” Satoshi over the years, I’m certain this latest one won’t provide definitive proof either.

If you’ve been in Bitcoin long enough, you know the drill — someone claims they know or are Satoshi, theories start swirling, but no convincing evidence ever materializes. Inevitably it ends with embarrassment for the accuser. We’ve been through this rodeo too many times now.

With Bitcoin becoming a $1.2 trillion asset class, the allure of outing Satoshi is understandable. His stash alone is supposedly 1.1 million BTC, worth over $65 billion currently. 

The usual suspects like Adam Back, Hal Finney or Nick Szabo will likely be resurrected as prime candidates. And the accused will again firmly deny the allegations. Our favorite Bitcoin historian, Pete Rizzo, already made $200 bets with Shinobi, Nikolaus, Frank, and I that Back ends up named and denies it.

Yet ideally, Satoshi should remain anonymous as he clearly desired. Bitcoin succeeds on the merits of its decentralized design, not based on any single personality. Unmasking Satoshi risks undermining Bitcoin’s mystique and independence.

As Bitcoin grows into a global asset, the stakes around identifying its creator rise exponentially. The richest person on earth makes for an attractive bounty. But true proof remains elusive.

These periodic media frenzies claiming to crack the case produce great hype yet always disappoint. They act as amateur sleuths following flawed hunches rather than impartial investigations seeking truth.

So I advise fellow Bitcoiners to take next week’s “big reveal” with a huge grain of salt. It will likely be more sensationalism than substance, repeating familiar theories that fall short of definitive evidence. 

The only person who can conclusively prove they are Satoshi is Satoshi himself. Until then, the mystery continues – as it should.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Every author has their own voice.

At Bitcoin Magazine, we’ve long been advocates of elevating the voices from the Bitcoin community. As the premier publisher of Bitcoin opinion content, we continually amplify the various perspectives from across the industry, whether they’re those of major CEOs or humble stackers.

That said, the Bitcoin Magazine brand has often relied on a more unified (or classical) editorial voice in its publication. We’re now taking steps to change that, by introducing a new article type called “Takes”.

Takes are short articles about an idea, trend, blog post, person, company, product or proposal in the Bitcoin space, on which the authors give their (indeed) “takes.” 

Compared to featured stories, Takes are more quickly written and opinionated. This means that Takes will offer a window into the thoughts and ideas of our authors, allowing readers to get an unfiltered glimpse of how they view Bitcoin and the world around it.

Takes are published by the Bitcoin Magazine editorial team, but can also be written by anyone else who works at Bitcoin Magazine or its parent company BTC Inc. Occasionally outside contributors may contribute Takes as well.

Of course, Bitcoin Magazine will continue to publish long-form features and contributed opinion pieces alongside Takes. Takes will continue to abide by our established policies for Layer 2 networks, as well as Bitcoin tokens, and be clearly labelled for reader understanding.

We hope our Takes model will add to the discourse, and spur conversation as Bitcoin continues to advance and become widely used as the ultimate form of money.