Month: January 2025

The New Nemesis

There is no doubt that the last cycles of elections worldwide, particularly in the U.S., have revealed several “elephants in the room” filled with hypocritic actions, psychological experiments subjecting the proletariat to new forms of manipulation, and through control under the guise of misinformation. The post-Cold War world moved from a good versus evil exposé to a world void of the enemies required to feed the West’s military-industrial-political establishment. In such a void, the illuminati in power sought a new nemesis to ensure the continuance of their power base, a foe that was easier to manipulate. The new opponent became the populus themselves.

What one may overlook is that this passage to dominate the proletariat began long before the Cold War ended. It grew from the seeds of the many self-serving efforts to improve the educational systems of the West, from the guises to protect “non-sophisticated” investors from making their own financial decisions that may tread on Wall-Street, and from the pretext to save democracy, the dollar and the market system.

The False Fiat Victory

Today, the military-industrial-political establishment claims an implicit near total victory over the 99% built on a series of skirmishes that stretch back to the 1980s, where the battles began in earnest. They were the era of deregulation, Wall-Street wolves, and the rise of financial engineering that one might alternatively call the Perestroika of money. I view the 1980s as the turning point for Western civilization. The period looked so good coming off the stagflation, economic and political decline, and war-torn and hostage-filled 1970s. However, the socio-monetary battles that ensued aimed to squash Plebians spanning from dominating their means of education, wealth creation, transport, eating and working habits and thoughts, among other areas.

If you don’t accept that the 1980s imposed such vast societal changes on us, consider that it held the birth of PEOPLExpress, the first low-cost airline where, we, the public was told that this was the future for aviation and travel with no more reserved seats or meals. The decade saw the rise of finance as the number one area of study selected by the college-age generation. Graduates were taught to forget “real” work as the future revolved only around moving money from A to B. Our food chains jumped over the cliff and continue the decline well into the 90s and beyond with innovations such as “Olestra”, the fat substitute that not only claimed to reduce your calorie intake, but offer you a side of abdominal cramping and loose stools as was printed on the warning label of all products containing it. And, for the tree-huggers reading this, the decade saw the disappearance of glass bottles replaced by the Tetra Pak plastic generation.

PEOPLExpressSource: https://metroairportnews.com/peoplexpress-fly-smart/

While I reference a glut of ground shaking actions in the 1980s, one of the most important movements was the nuisances imposed over our educational systems. These impositions gave birth to long-lasting negative consequences in the ability of individuals to have rational thought, express tolerance, and show decision-making ability. Teaching “self-esteem” in schools without earning it became the mantra. Giving a reward for just “trying” became 35% of your college syllabus grade. Recall that this California-created crusade reasoned that increasing people’s self-esteem could reduce crime, poverty, pollution, global warming, and most social evils. Yet, they never mentioned that it could “fix the money” or “fix the world”. Rather than educating the masses on practicality and rationality, the masses are taught to just pat themselves on the back. This change in mentality, this revision to the social and educational orders in the 1980s, I postulate, were the triggers to the downfall of global societal norms and values and subsequently financial literacy.

“The losers are the true winners”

Over the subsequent decades, the movements I highlight have imposed damage to the ensuing generations impacted financial literacy among other societal norms. We now see the results of these, perhaps, well-intentioned, yet misguided programs resulting in the frustration we have, as we try to educate not only youth, but grown adults about Bitcoin.

I recall a phrase I heard on a TV sitcom once that will go unnamed for risk of a copyright transgression: “The losers are the true winners.”

Is this the current world we want?

Sorry for my rant but as Shakespeare said: “I rant, therefore I am”. If you’re depressed at this point in my tirade, either take a pill, a nap or grow a pair….or some other fruit and plod forward.

“Rotten” Orange…..Pilling

What is wrong with investors and markets today? They are the TikTok investor generation who decide that they can make investment decisions and quick money after spending 14-hours a day scrolling the app as a replacement to the mediocre quality of university “education” in practical finance. Today’s investors think they are immune to the past. They know it all. Somehow knowledge learned from history no longer matters beyond their 5-years of work experience at a Big-4 consulting firm after obtaining a dual business/fourth-century art history degree paid from $200,000 of student loans.

The Wall-Street-political-media industrial complex added to investor “dumifiction”. They did this through tribulations like the manipulation of Libor, gold market collusion, and the Madoff Ponzi that gave birth to pure mistrust of all established financial or mathematical impetus regardless of its foundation or its potential source of learning. Politically motivated misinformation further fed the fire advocating that inflation is “good for you” and recessions don’t exist as previously known. Global political powers also added their bits telling you to be “green or die”.

Bernie Madoff

“A fool and his money are soon parted” was the adage. Yet, today, the fool earns at the expense of the rational.

To this ratatouille of the miss-guided and ill-informed current investor generation, global central bank money printing presses since the 1980s added their drug through the creation of a glut of liquidity. Arm the TikTok investor with liquidity and in the words of Alan Greenspan “irrational exuberance” results. Investors believe falsely that they are experts in portfolio theory, risk management, and investing. The liquidity glut has run rampant through the TikTok generation faster than a Fauci/Gates inspired virus.

In other words, these Rotten Oranges over the last decades have created today’s irrational money management mentality. The Dunning–Kruger effect has incentivized throwing money at “Shitcoins” rather than Bitcoins.

Dunning–Kruger effect: People overestimate their level of expertise and knowledgeSource: https://psu.pb.unizin.org/socialpsychmethodsjmc948/chapter/social-comparison-noba-2/

Moneyzine.com reported that the percentage of US adults with poor financial literacy stood at 25% in 2023, that Gen Z and Gen Y have the lowest financial literacy rates among US generations, at 38% and 45% respectively, and that 48% of teens say they learn about personal finance on social media.

Aleksandr SolzhenitsynSource: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleksandr_Solzhenitsyn

Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn said that: “Human beings are born with different capacities. If they are free, they are not equal. And if they are equal, they are not free.”

But can a value proposition, a monetary revolution overcome such a dilemma?

Would Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn ever have hypothesized that his words could be applied to our desire to break free of Fiat hegemony?

Can Bitcoin offer human beings a great equalizer and personal freedom at the same time?

From Rotten Oranges to Orange Blossoms

Educating the new generation not only on Bitcoin but also re-educating the masses on financial common sense needs to be a priority. Practicality must again prevail versus likes earned on Instagram. The Robinhood’s of today need to stop learning finance on TikTok and study historical context. Regarding Bitcoin the intrepid Greg Foss said it’s “just math”.

The “soft spoken” Max Keiser also said: “We must continue to educate the masses and encourage savings in Bitcoin to truly drain the kleptocratic swamp ruling our financial system.”

Even “God’s Banker” could not escape being the wrath of the non-common-sensical Fiat world with his demise under just one bridge too far.

Without financial common sense as written by Benjamin Franklin in “The Way to Wealth“,

“We are taxed twice as much by our idleness, three times as much by our pride, and four times as much by our folly”

Are you ready to re-awaken to the needed reality or be taxed four times?

This is a guest post by Enza Coin. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Follow Frank on X.

Often, when I speak with everyday Bitcoiners — plebs, if you will — they share with me that they’re torn between carrying on with their “fiat job” and getting more involved in the Bitcoin space on a professional level.

I usually tell them that they can start by incorporating Bitcoin into what they currently do for a living, though, I haven’t had a great example of someone doing this that I can point them to — until this morning.

When it’s time for the clients of osteopath Rob Shaw, based in Essex, UK (just outside of London), to pay him for his services, he presents them with the option to pay with British pounds or bitcoin via a Musqet PoS device.

First Bitcoin payment accepted with @Musqet_Bitcoin POS terminal.

This device reduces traditional payment fees and also enables Bitcoin transactions.

Learn more by listening to this @Princey21M podcast. #Bitcoin https://t.co/8Ac9VgOopL pic.twitter.com/VHBa4mmERM

— Chelmsford Osteopathic Practice (@essexosteopath) May 29, 2024

(Please note he doesn’t go into a lesson on Bitcoin’s underlying technology or the principles of Austrian economics as he does this.)

Rob shared that here and there a client will act surprised when presented with the option to pay with bitcoin but that most simply make their choice between the two and proceed with making their payment.

Rob’s efforts have led to two of his clients now regularly paying in bitcoin, and he also provides a touchpoint for those who have yet to begin paying with it.

In this way, Rob is a Bitcoin bridge.

(And, ironically enough, it was an organization called Bridge 2 Bitcoin that introduced Rob to Bitcoin as a payment technology for his business.)

He’s subtly introducing people to Bitcoin, giving them the option to cross over into Bitcoin land in the process.

On Tower Bridge in London with Rob.

Some might call this “orange-pilling” (a term I don’t like much because it feels too coercive), but I’d argue that this is a more refined way to present bitcoin to people. In offering it as an official payment method for professional services, it legitimizes Bitcoin and prompts those unfamiliar with it to begin viewing it in a new light.

If professionals around the world employed such an approach, Bitcoin adoption would accelerate notably.

So, instead of feeling that you have to drop whatever you’re doing for work to join the Bitcoin industry full-time, consider being a bridge to Bitcoin and bringing the Bitcoin industry to what you’re already doing.

Be like Rob, be a Bitcoin bridge!

Discussing when and how to sell Bitcoin can be controversial, but if you’re planning to take profits this cycle, it’s essential to do it strategically. While holding Bitcoin indefinitely is an option for some, many investors aim to capture gains, cover living expenses, or reinvest at lower prices. Historical trends show that Bitcoin often experiences drawdowns of 70-80%, providing opportunities to reaccumulate at reduced valuations.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, check out a recent YouTube video here: Proven Strategy To Sell The Bitcoin Price Peak

Why Selling Isn’t Always Taboo

While some, like Michael Saylor, advocate never selling Bitcoin, this stance doesn’t always suit individual investors. For those not managing billions, taking partial profits can offer flexibility and peace of mind. If Bitcoin peaks at, say, $250,000 and faces a fairly conservative 60% correction, it would revisit $100,000, creating a chance to reenter at lower levels than we’ve already seen.

Figure 1: There’s a good chance you’ll be able to scale back in at lower prices than today.

The goal isn’t to sell everything but to strategically scale out of positions, maximizing returns and managing risks. Achieving this requires pragmatic, data-driven decisions, not emotional reactions. But again, if you never want to sell, then don’t! Do whatever works best for you.

Key Timing Tools

This Active Address Sentiment Indicator (AASI) compares changes in network activity to Bitcoin’s price movement. It measures deviations between price (orange line) and network activity, shown by green and red deviation bands.

Figure 2: AASI has historically worked well as a top timing indicator.

View Live Chart

For example, during the 2021 bull run, signals emerged when the price change exceeded the red band. Sell signals appeared at $40,000, $52,000, $58,000, and $63,000. Each provided an opportunity to scale out as the market overheated.

The Fear and Greed Index is a simple yet effective sentiment tool that quantifies market euphoria or panic. Values above 90 suggest extreme greed, often preceding corrections, such as in 2021, when Bitcoin rallied from $3,000 to $14,000, the index hit 95, signaling a local peak.

Figure 3: Fear & Greed is simple but has historically been effective.

View Live Chart

The Short-Term Holder MVRV measures the average unrealized profit or loss of new market participants by comparing their cost basis to current prices. Around 33% profit levels often mark reversals and local intracycle peaks, and when unrealized profits exceed around 66%, markets are often overheated and may be close to major cycle peaks.

Figure 4: Short Term Holder MVRV has predictable turning points.

View Live Chart

Related: Bitcoin Deep Dive Data Analysis & On-Chain Roundup

The Bitcoin Funding Rates reflect the premiums traders pay to maintain leverage positions in futures markets. Extremely high funding rates suggest excessive bullishness, often preceding corrections. Like most metrics, we can see that counter-trading an overly euphoric majority usually provides an edge.

Figure 5: Incredibly high funding rates cannot be sustained and often mark turning points.

View Live Chart

The Crosby Ratio is a momentum-based indicator that highlights overheated conditions. When the ratio enters the red zone on the daily chart, or even lower timeframes if you use our TradingView version of the indicator, market turning points have typically occurred. When these signals occur in confluence with other top-marking metrics, it solidifies the probability of a larger-scale prediction.

Figure 6: Crosby Ratio outlines overextended upside price action.

View Live Chart

Conclusion

Timing the exact top is virtually impossible, and no single metric or strategy is foolproof. Combine multiple indicators for confluence and avoid selling your entire position at once. Instead, scale out in increments as key indicators signal overheated conditions, and consider setting trailing stops tied to key levels or a percentage of price movement to capture additional gains if price rallies even higher.

For more detailed Bitcoin analysis and to access advanced features like live charts, personalized indicator alerts, and in-depth industry reports, check out Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

The Czech National Bank (CNB) is considering adding Bitcoin to its national reserves, with Governor Aleš Michl proposing to allocate up to 5% of the country’s €140 billion reserves to the cryptocurrency. If approved, this move would make the CNB the first Western central bank to hold Bitcoin. Michl argues that Bitcoin could serve as a diversification tool amid growing global interest in crypto investments, particularly after the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs by major financial institutions like BlackRock.

The CNB board has yesterday approved an internal analysis to assess the potential risks and benefits of holding Bitcoin as part of its reserves. This analysis will inform the final decision, but no immediate changes will be made until the review is complete. While there’s no specific timeline, it’s reasonable to anticipate that the CNB’s analysis and subsequent decision-making process could take several months. Since the CNB board has the authority to decide on reserve composition, no legislative approval is required at this stage. However, if broader policy changes or additional oversight measures are deemed necessary, further regulatory discussions may follow. The outcome of this process will determine whether the Czech Republic takes a pioneering step in Bitcoin adoption at the central banking level.

Of course, not everyone is convinced. Critics argue that Bitcoin’s volatility makes it an unreliable reserve asset, with prices fluctuating dramatically over short periods. Czech Finance Minister Zbyněk Stanjura has warned that the central bank should prioritize stability, not speculation. But volatility alone does not disqualify an asset from being part of a diversified reserve—after all, the Czech National Bank already holds gold, foreign currencies, and bonds, all of which carry their own risks. Yes, Bitcoin is volatile, but so is the Euro when central banks print trillions. Bitcoin, despite its price swings, has been the best-performing asset of the last decade and is increasingly recognized as a hedge against excessive monetary expansion and inflation. The Eurozone’s ongoing struggles with debt and inflation only strengthen the argument for Bitcoin’s inclusion. By holding a small allocation of Bitcoin, Czechia is not betting recklessly—it is taking a calculated step to ensure financial resilience in an era of growing economic uncertainty.

Christine Lagarde recently dismissed the idea of Bitcoin becoming a reserve asset in the European Union, but here’s the key detail—Czechia is in the EU, but not in the Eurozone. Unlike countries that must follow the European Central Bank’s policies, Czechia has its own currency, the Czech koruna (CZK), and a fully independent central bank. This means the Czech National Bank is free to make its own monetary decisions, including adding Bitcoin to its reserves. While Brussels resists, Prague can lead.

For many, this proposal seems radical. But for those who understand Czechia’s past, it feels like the natural next step. My home country is a nation of DIY thinkers—people who know that if you don’t do it yourself, no one will. We have always had to figure out how to survive and keep our freedom because it has been taken from us so often. It just makes so much sense that Bitcoin resonates here. When you grow up listening to your grandfather’s stories at Christmas dinner—stories about how his land and house were seized by the communist regime, only to be neglected and ruined by state cooperatives—you understand. When you hear about your relatives fleeing abroad, leaving all their possessions behind, sewing the last of their inherited gold into their coats just to have a chance to survive in the West, you really get it. You want to have something that no one even knows you have—something no one can take from you.

Czechia’s innovation in Bitcoin is no coincidence. The world’s first Bitcoin mining pool (Slush Pool, now Braiins) was founded in Prague, along with the first-ever hardware wallet, Trezor. Recently, the government took a progressive step by eliminating capital gains tax for long-term Bitcoin holders, making it easier for citizens to build generational wealth. This doesn’t happen on its own—it’s the result of relentless work by Bitcoiners in Czechia, who are constantly pushing boundaries, educating not just individuals but also policymakers, politicians, and governors. Despite the ongoing debates on what constitutes a grassroots approach, in my opinion, there is no better example of a bottom-up strategy. We often complain that policies don’t make sense and are unfair, but what do we do to change them? We buckle up, explain, educate, and make clear what we want, what we will vote for, and where we draw the line.

This isn’t just about Bitcoin—it’s about securing our place in Europe and reaffirming our role in the Western world. The CNB’s proposal to hold Bitcoin as a reserve asset could cement Czechia’s reputation as a European leader in innovation—and, let’s be honest, finally give this small nation access to Bitcoin at the price it deserves. Unlike resource-rich nations that rely on oil or vast agricultural exports, Czechia has always depended on ingenuity, craftsmanship, and strategic thinking. We don’t have liquid gold under our feet, and we cannot ‘drill, baby, drill.’ We do not have vast, fertile lands. But we have our minds and our hands, and in this highly competitive race, that is how we will secure our future.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.