Month: November 2024

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What an enormous day it has been today.

Gary Gensler officially announced that he is stepping down from his position as Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and minutes later, Reuters reported that Donald Trump’s “crypto council” is expected to “establish Trump’s promised bitcoin reserve.” A bitcoin reserve, that would see the United States purchase 200,000 bitcoin per year, for five years until it has bought 1,000,000 bitcoin. 

Image via Julian Fahrer

Right after both of those, Bitcoin continued its upward momentum and broke $99,000, with $100,000 feeling like it can happen at any second now.

It is hard to contain my bullishness thinking about the United States purchasing 200,000 BTC per year. They essentially have to compete with everyone else in the world who is also accumulating bitcoin and attempting to front run them. There are only 21 million bitcoin and that is a LOT of demand.

To put this into context, so far this year the US spot bitcoin ETFs have accumulated a combined total of over 1 million BTC. At the time of launch the price was ~$44,000 and now bitcoin is practically at $100,000. And that’s all ETFs combined. Imagine what will happen when just one entity wants to buy a total of 1 million coins, having to compete with everyone else accumulating large amounts as well?

I mean MicroStrategy literally just completed another $3 BILLION raise to buy more bitcoin, and will continue raising until it purchases $42 billion more in bitcoin. The United States are most likely going to be purchasing their coins (if this legislation is officially signed into law) at very high prices. The demand is insane and only rising in the foreseeable future.

With two months left to go until Trump officially takes office, it remains to be seen if this bill becomes law, but at the moment things are looking really good. As Senator Cynthia Lummis stated, “This is our Louisiana Purchase moment!” and would be an absolutely historic moment for Bitcoin, Bitcoiners, and the future financial dominance of the United States of America.

This is the solution.

This is the answer.

This is our Louisiana Purchase moment!#Bitcoin2024 pic.twitter.com/RNEiLaB16U

— Senator Cynthia Lummis (@SenLummis) July 27, 2024

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

As someone who has used Microsoft products my whole life, it pains me to see they are fumbling the bag on Bitcoin. The company’s $78 billion in cash reserves are losing value daily. Meanwhile, they stubbornly refuse to follow MicroStrategy’s proven winning strategy — convert those melting dollars to scarce Bitcoin!

Microsoft announced a couple of months ago that it would buy back shares up to $60 billion; it seems like this did nothing to increase the stock price. Imagine if they had bought Bitcoin instead. That money would have been much more powerful if allocated to Bitcoin. The company would likely have added hundreds of billions in market cap.

Just look at MicroStrategy. In just four years, they turned their $1 billion company into $100 billion by adopting Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset. They are now the most compelling and successful story in corporate finance, with the best-performing stock in the last four years, beating every US company – even NVIDIA.

Yet Microsoft clings to an outdated financial strategy, destroying shareholder value. Microsoft should follow its technology instincts, not faulty financial logic. There is no long-term viability in holding cash.

I was listening to X Spaces yesterday, during which MicroStrategy’s CEO Michael Saylor revealed that he offered to explain Bitcoin’s benefits privately, but Microsoft’s CEO Satya Nadella rejected the meeting. Now, he is making a last-ditch appeal by presenting a 3-minute Bitcoin proposal to Microsoft’s board.

Earlier, the board already advised shareholders to reject assessing Bitcoin’s potential upside. Nonetheless, I am interested to see how this meeting will turn out. Saylor is a great educator, so you never know.

They should realise that no corporate treasury asset like Bitcoin can enhance enterprise value. Even a small $5 billion Bitcoin allocation could add tens of billions in market cap.

Look, Microsoft, the choice is clear – hoard melting dollars or embrace uncensorable digital gold. Your shareholders are begging you to buy Bitcoin. It’s time to listen before that $78 billion completely disappears. This is your fiduciary duty as Bitcoin continues mass adoption.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

BitVM earlier this year came under fire due to the large liquidity requirements necessary in order for a rollup (or other system operator) to process withdrawals for the two way peg mechanisms being built using the BitVM design. Galaxy, an investor in Citrea, has performed an economic analysis looking at their assumptions regarding economic conditions necessary to make a BitVM based two way peg a sustainable operation.

For those unfamiliar, pegging into a BitVM system requires the operators to take custody of user funds in an n-of-n multisig, creating a set of pre-signed transactions allowing the operator facilitating withdrawals to claim funds back after a challenge period. The user is then issued backed tokens on the rollup or other second layer system.

Pegouts are slightly more complicated. The user must burn their funds on the second layer system, and then craft a Partially Signed Bitcoin Transaction (PSBT) paying them funds back out on the mainchain, minus a fee to the operator processing withdrawals. They can keep crafting new PSBTs paying the operator higher fees until the operator accepts. At this point the operator will take their own liquidity and pay out the user’s withdrawal.

The operator can then, after having processed withdrawals adding up to a deposited UTXO, initiate the withdrawal out of the BitVM system to make themselves whole. This includes a challenge-response period to protect against fraud, which Galaxy models as a 14 day window. During this time period anyone who can construct a fraud proof showing that the operator did not honestly honor the withdrawals of all users in that epoch can initiate the challenge. If the operator cannot produce a proof they correctly processed all withdrawals, then the connector input (a special transaction input that is required to use their pre-signed transactions) the operator uses to claim their funds back can be burned, locking them out of the ability to recuperate their funds.

Now that we’ve gotten through a mechanism refresher, let’s look at what Galaxy modeled: the economic viability of operating such a peg.

There are a number of variables that must be considered when looking at whether this system can be operated profitably. Transaction fees, amount of liquidity available, but most importantly the opportunity cost of devoting capital to processing withdrawals from a BitVM peg. This last one is of critical importance in being able to source liquidity to manage the peg in the first place. If liquidity providers (LPs) can earn more money doing something else with their money, then they are essentially losing money by using their capital to operate a BitVM system.

All of these factors have to be covered, profitably, by the aggregate of fees users will pay to peg out of the system for it to make sense to operate. I.e. to generate a profit. The two references for competing interest rates Galaxy looked at were Aave, a DeFi protocol operating on Ethereum, and OTC markets in Bitcoin.

Aave at the time of their report earned lenders approximately 1% interest on WBTC (Wrapped Bitcoin pegged into Ethereum) lent out. OTC lending on the other hand had rates as high as 7.6% compared to Aave. This shows a stark difference between the expected return on capital between DeFi users and institutional investors. Users of a BitVM system must generate revenue in excess of these interest rates in order to attract capital to the peg from these other systems.

By Galaxy’s projections, as long as LPs are targeting a 10% Annual Percentage Yield (APY), that should cost individual users -0.38% in a peg out transaction. The only wildcard variable, so to say, is the transaction fees that the operator has to pay during high fee environments. The users funds are already reclaimed using the operators liquidity instantly after initiating the pegout, while the operator has to wait the two week challenge period in order to claim back the fronted liquidity.

If fees were to spike in the meanwhile, this would eat into the operators profit margins when they eventually claim their funds back from the BitVM peg. However, in theory operators could simply wait until fees subside to initiate the challenge period and claim their funds back.

Overall the viability of a BitVM peg comes down to being able to generate a high enough yield on liquidity used to process withdrawals to attract the needed capital. To attract more institutional capital, these yields must be higher in order to compete with OTC markets.

The full Galaxy report can be read here. 

The Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top Indicator has gained legendary status in the Bitcoin community for its uncanny accuracy in identifying market cycle peaks. Historically, it has timed every single Bitcoin cycle high with remarkable precision—often within just three days. Could it work its magic again this cycle? Let’s dive deeper into how it works and its significance in navigating Bitcoin’s market cycles.

View the Pi Cycle Top Indicator Chart Here.

What is the Pi Cycle Top Indicator?

The Pi Cycle Top Indicator is a tool designed to identify Bitcoin’s market cycle tops. Created by Philip Swift, Managing Director of Bitcoin Magazine Pro in April 2019, this indicator uses a combination of two moving averages to forecast cycle highs:

111-Day Moving Average (111DMA): Represents the shorter-term price trend.350-Day Moving Average x 2 (350DMA x 2): A multiple of the 350DMA, which captures longer-term trends.

When the 111DMA rises sharply and crosses above the 350DMA x 2, it historically coincides with Bitcoin’s market cycle peak.

The Mathematics Behind the Name

Interestingly, the ratio of 350 to 111 equals approximately 3.153—remarkably close to Pi (3.142). This mathematical quirk gives the indicator its name and highlights the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s price action over time.

Why Has It Been So Accurate?

The Pi Cycle Top Indicator has been effective in predicting the peaks of Bitcoin’s three most recent market cycles. Its ability to pinpoint the absolute tops reflects Bitcoin’s historically predictable cycles during its adoption growth phase. The indicator essentially captures the point where the market becomes overheated, as reflected by the steep rise of the 111DMA surpassing the 350DMA x 2.

How Can Investors Use This Indicator?

For investors, the Pi Cycle Top Indicator serves as a warning sign that the market may be approaching unsustainable levels. Historically, when the indicator flashes, it has been advantageous to sell Bitcoin near the top of the market cycle. This makes it a valuable tool for those seeking to maximize gains and minimize losses.

However, as Bitcoin matures and integrates further into the global financial system—bolstered by developments like Bitcoin ETFs and institutional adoption—the effectiveness of this indicator may diminish. It remains most relevant during Bitcoin’s early adoption phase.

A Glimpse Into the Future

The big question now is: will the Pi Cycle Top Indicator remain accurate in this cycle? With Bitcoin entering a new era of adoption and market dynamics, its cyclical patterns may evolve. Yet, this tool has proven its worth repeatedly over Bitcoin’s first 15 years, offering investors a reliable gauge of market tops.

Final Thoughts

The Pi Cycle Top Indicator is a testament to Bitcoin’s cyclical nature and the power of mathematical models in understanding its price behavior. While its past accuracy has been unparalleled, only time will tell if it can once again predict Bitcoin’s next market cycle peak. For now, it remains an indispensable tool for those navigating the thrilling highs and lows of Bitcoin.

Explore the full chart and stay informed.

It’s been a good week for Bitcoin and its status in the eyes of federal deposit insurance corporations. (Well, there’s a weird sentence I never thought I’d write.)

On Tuesday, the anti-crypto U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) Chairman, Martin Gruenberg, announced he’d be stepping down in January.

And yesterday, Heritage Falodun, CEO of DigiOats, Nigeria’s leading Bitcoin education and consultancy platform, educated members of the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) about the benefits of bitcoin and other digital assets.

Falodun, an indefatigable Bitcoin proponent, spearheaded a seminar for the NDIC entitled “Cryptocurrency in the Evolving Financial Industry”.

This week, @DigiOats alongside with #MassCyberTech completed a groundbreaking seminar for @NDICNigeria 🇳🇬on “Cryptocurrency in the Evolving Financial Industry”. We explored #Bitcoin adoption, regulation, and sustainable finance marking a key moment for Nigeria’s financial future pic.twitter.com/hpWQOqZt8L

— DigiOats⚡️ (@DigiOats) November 21, 2024

In it, he highlighted the following points:

Bitcoin can serve as a reserve asset for nation states, including NigeriaUsing bitcoin (and other digital assets), banks can reduce settlement timeBitcoin can reduce capital controls, as its censorship resistant

Falodun and his team also provided an overview on the evolution of money and financial systems and also touched on the ways in which bitcoin and crypto are already integrated into traditional financial structures in efforts to convince the NDIC of Bitcoin and crypto’s importance.

“Nigeria must adopt balanced regulations that protect citizens and foster innovation,” Falodun told Bitcoin Magazine. “By embracing Bitcoin’s uniqueness and engaging the Bitcoin community, Nigeria can lead the global financial revolution.”

Falodun knows that without properly educating government officials, Bitcoin runs the risk of being misunderstood and, therefore, regulated improperly.

“I would like regulators to understand that Bitcoin’s decentralized nature is not a flaw to be regulated out of existence, but a feature that offers unprecedented opportunities for inclusion, economic freedom and optimization of financial rails,” he added.

I respect Falodun’s efforts.

Before you go calling me a statist or some other silly reductive term, I’d like to remind you that even well-known cypherpunks like Adam Back have said that part of the struggle around greater Bitcoin adoption (and encryption in general) will include engaging with governments (and courts).

Proponents of Bitcoin should acknowledge our current political reality and make the case for Bitcoin to those in power if they want to see it flourish — or if they want to at least stop governments from crafting poor policy around Bitcoin and/or attacking the industry.

Take a cue from Falodun and do your part to educate local government officials, members of state-level administrative agencies or even Federal-level bureaucrats about Bitcoin.

It’s one of the most important things you can do to keep your country from falling behind.

Peak Bitcoin, hardly.

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As I wrote in Forbes in 2021, the world is waking up to a new reality in regards to Bitcoin – the unlikely truth that Bitcoin’s programming has cyclical effects on its economy.

This has led to at least 4 distinct market cycles where Bitcoin has been branded a bubble, skeptics have rung their hands, and each time, Bitcoin recovers more or less 4 years later to set new all-time highs above its previously “sky-high” valuation.

I personally watched Bitcoin go from $50 to $1,300 in 2013. Then, from $1,000 to $20,000 in 2017, and I watched it go from $20,000 to $70,000 in 2021.

So, I’m just here to relate that, from my past experience, this market cycle is just heating up.

For those who have been in Bitcoin, there’s one tried-and-true and that’s Google Search. As long as I’ve been in Bitcoin, this has been the best indicator of the strength of the market.

Search is low, you’re probably in a bear market. Search heading back to all-time highs? This means new entrants are getting engaged, learning about Bitcoin, and becoming active buyers.

Remember, this is a habit change. Bitcoin HODLers are slowing shifting their assets to a wholly new economy. So, Google Trends search then, represents a snapshot of Bitcoin’s immigration. It shows how many new sovereign citizens are moving their money here.

And it’s something that all who are worried about whether bitcoin’s price topping out in 2024 should pay attention to.

Last year was the Bitcoin halving, and historically, the year following previous halvings has led to price appreciation. Maybe you’re tempted to think, “this time is different” – not me. I look at search and I see a chart that continues to accelerate into price discovery. Trust me when I say no one I know is selling bitcoin.

As shown above, buyer interest is accelerating, and these new buyers have to buy that Bitcoin from somewhere. Add nation states, US states, and a coming Trump administration set to ease the burden on the industry?

Well, I think the chart above says it all really. 

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.