Market News & Insights.

Private-Sector Hiring Missed Expectations In July, ADP Report Says

Private companies added a net 44,000 jobs in July after adding a revised 95,000 jobs in June, human-resources company ADP said.

Futures Hit New Record High On Strong Earnings Following Historic Call Buying Frenzy

Futures Hit New Record High On Strong Earnings Following Historic Call Buying Frenzy S&P 500 futures are up following yesterday’s first ATH since June; both tech and small caps are lagging, pointing to another potential broadening. A jump in US tech stocks is holding too, with…

Brent Bounces As Houthis Attack, Sink Vessel Off Yemen With Sea Drone

Brent Bounces As Houthis Attack, Sink Vessel Off Yemen With Sea Drone The Houthis have quickly made good on their earlier threat, with the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) Centre having reported the following fresh attack off Yemen: UKMTO has received a time-late…

Fauci's Time Is Up...

Fauci's Time Is Up... Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News, Sen. Rand Paul has locked in the date for a committee vote that could finally impose real consequences on Anthony Fauci, the longtime public health official whose pandemic-era decisions reshaped daily life for…

"Momentum Continues": Lilly Jumps After Raising Revenue Outlook On Surging GLP-1 Demand

"Momentum Continues": Lilly Jumps After Raising Revenue Outlook On Surging GLP-1 Demand Shares of Eli Lilly & Co. are rising in premarket trading after the pharmaceutical giant raised its full-year revenue forecast following a 48% jump in second-quarter sales, fueled by…

Inside Ford's "Passionate" Reinvention

Inside Ford's "Passionate" Reinvention Ford has reshaped its business by narrowing its lineup to vehicles with stronger brand appeal and higher profit potential. Instead of offering a wide range of sedans, hatchbacks, and family cars, the company is concentrating on trucks,…

BP Retreats Further From Green Energy With Archaea Sale

BP Retreats Further From Green Energy With Archaea Sale Via City A.M., BP plans to sell Archaea Energy after the US biogas operation delivered weaker-than-expected returns. Second-quarter adjusted profit climbed to $5.7 billion as Middle East disruption lifted oil and gas…

New Signals Point To Another Possible Migrant Invasion Against Ceuta

New Signals Point To Another Possible Migrant Invasion Against Ceuta The scenes from the Ceuta invasion were deeply alarming, as 60,000 predominantly military-aged men, many carrying no supplies, crossed from Morocco into the Spanish enclave. The invasion set off alarm bells…

You'll Never Guess Which Nation Drinks The Most Tea Or Coffee

You'll Never Guess Which Nation Drinks The Most Tea Or Coffee With a global market valued at more than $300 billion in 2026, tea is said to be the second most consumed hot beverage in the world. As the United Nations notes, the tea industry provides "a major source of income and…

India’s Central Bank Holds Rates as Iran Crisis Keeps Risks High

India’s central bank held rates steady again, saying that the economy remains resilient in the face of pressure stemming from the conflict in the Middle East.

France's €107 Billion Deficit Shock: The Next Euro Debt Crisis?

France's €107 Billion Deficit Shock: The Next Euro Debt Crisis? Submitted by Thomas Kolbe Tuesday marked another low point for European fiscal stability. France, a cornerstone of the euro system, confirmed once again that it remains a leading candidate and potential trigger for…

How Economic Power Has Shifted Over The Past 200 Years

How Economic Power Has Shifted Over The Past 200 Years Over the last 200 years, economic leadership has shifted from China to the British Empire, then to the United States, and increasingly back toward Asia. This streamgraph, via Visual Capitalist's Gabriel Cohen, tracks how the…

US Expands Strategic Foothold On Somalia's Coast As Yemen Conflict Simmers

US Expands Strategic Foothold On Somalia's Coast As Yemen Conflict Simmers Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com, A US military delegation visited the local government in Somalia's northeastern Puntland region on Sunday and signed a deal to expand the US military presence in…

Which Countries Think They're On The Right Track?

Which Countries Think They're On The Right Track? Public confidence in national direction varies dramatically around the world. Respondents in several Asian countries are broadly optimistic, while majorities across much of Europe and the Americas believe their countries are on…

Half Of Foreign Welfare Recipients In Spain Are Moroccan

Half Of Foreign Welfare Recipients In Spain Are Moroccan Via Remix News, Nearly half of all foreign nationals receiving Spain’s Minimum Living Income (IMV) are Moroccan, according to previously unpublished figures obtained by The Objective through a transparency request. The…

Inflation Problem Isn’t Only About Energy, Fed’s Schmid Says

Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said Tuesday that the Federal Reserve’s inflation problem isn’t only about energy, and bringing inflation down to the Fed’s 2% objective will require tighter policy.

The Last Places Standing When The Sky Turns To Ash

The Last Places Standing When The Sky Turns To Ash Authored by Madge Waggy, “We are standing at the precipice of something we cannot comprehend, and the silence from those who know is deafening. The mechanisms are already in motion, the chess pieces positioned with mathematical…

Oil Markets Price In An Iran Deal That Does Not Exist Yet

Oil Markets Price In An Iran Deal That Does Not Exist Yet Oil prices tumbled Tuesday as traders once again priced in a U.S.-Iran agreement before anyone had actually signed one. West Texas Intermediate was trading at $75.64 per barrel shortly before 2 p.m. ET, down $4.70, or…

Abbott Orders Pause On Texas Data Center Approvals Pending Audit

Abbott Orders Pause On Texas Data Center Approvals Pending Audit Texas Governor Greg Abbott just ordered a pause on approving new data center projects via the state's grid interconnection process over concerns that a surge in electricity demand could threaten reliability amid…

Socialist Wisconsin Gov Candidate Won't Back Down After Calling To "Cancel Thanksgiving"

Socialist Wisconsin Gov Candidate Won't Back Down After Calling To "Cancel Thanksgiving" Far-left Wisconsin gubernatorial contender Francesca Hong appeared to double down on resurfaced comments demanding that Thanksgiving be abolished, declining to walk back the post when…

Florida's Ban On Children Attending Drag Shows Is Constitutional, Appeals Court Says

Florida's Ban On Children Attending Drag Shows Is Constitutional, Appeals Court Says Authored by Troy Myers via The Epoch Times, A federal appeals court says Florida’s ban on children attending sexualized drag shows is constitutional. On Tuesday, the court overturned a lower…

Physical AI Faces One Critical Chokepoint, And Here's How To Profit

Physical AI Faces One Critical Chokepoint, And Here's How To Profit The rise of physical AI is already underway, with humanoid robots entering factories, warehouses, and other industrial environments, and soon the modern battlefield.  Global shipments of humanoid robots are…

Is 'Communist' No Longer A Slur?

Is 'Communist' No Longer A Slur? Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness, It is not difficult, these days, to see the neo-communist flipside of “Democratic Socialists”—once they find power. Indeed, the more the ossified Democratic Party claims that its growing…

Canada Goods-Trade Surplus Widens Slightly With Record Exports, Imports

Canada’s trade surplus with the world hit a four-year high as exports rose for a fifth straight month to reach a fresh peak, buoyed by a surge in gold shipments that helped counter a pullback in oil prices and all-time high imports.

U.S. Trade Deficit Contracted in June

U.S. imports totaled $388 billion in June, down 1.8% from May, while exports were $314.7 billion, down 0.9% from May. That yielded a trade deficit of $73.3 billion versus $77.6 billion in May.

From data centers to the massive increase in stock market-wealth, the AI boom is driving U.S. economic growth. But that engine is also a vulnerability. What happens if the boom fizzles?

AI has rapidly become a huge economic factor while affecting everything from capital investment to how much you pay for an iPhone.

A little-used Fed backstop is being put to a use it was never designed for—bankrolling Japan’s defense of the yen—and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wants it to be expanded

The Treasury secretary wants the central bank to help by raising its $60 billion borrowing limit on an obscure lending program.

U.S. Factory Activity Expands Again in July

The ISM’s purchasing managers’ index was 55.6 in July compared with 53.3 in June. Analysts polled by The Wall Street Journal were expecting a reading of 54.

Swiss Inflation Falls Again Despite Oil-Price Rebound

Inflation fell in July despite a rebound in global energy prices following a flare-up of conflict in the Middle East.

South Korea’s Export Growth Moderates But Remains Solid on Chip Demand

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh this week floated to colleagues the prospect of meeting less often, which would mark a substantial shift in its operations, according to people familiar with the matter

Meeting fewer than eight times a year would fit Chairman Kevin Warsh’s goal of drawing less attention to the central bank.

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said it is “a close call” whether the central bank’s interest-rate setting is high enough to bring inflation down

The Richmond Fed president said he doesn’t know whether he would have joined the three colleagues who dissented in favor of a rate increase.

Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: U.S. Jobs Data in Focus, Could Give Steer on Fed Outlook

U.S. monthly jobs data for July will provide the focus of attention as investors gauge the prospects for interest rates over the next few months.

Canada GDP Grows in May Amid Expansion in Oil and Gas Activity

Canada’s economy has roared back to life, tracking the strongest growth in roughly three years with an expansion in oil and gas activity and continued recoveries in areas like manufacturing.

Consumer Sentiment Rose in July, per Michigan Survey

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose to 55.2 from 49.5 in June as gasoline prices cooled.

Mortgage rates jumped to their highest level in a year, dealing another blow to a long-stalled housing market that shows little sign of recovering

Four straight weeks of rising mortgage rates pushed the 30-year borrowing rate this week to 6.66%.

Many business leaders are getting used to the idea of higher tariffs and expect them to stick around even after President Trump leaves office in January 2029

Many executives expect duties to outlast the Trump administration, warning the next president might find it hard to backtrack.

U.S. Jobless Claims Rebound After Streak of Declines

The number of people who filed for unemployment benefits was 197,000 in the week through July 25, 9,000 higher than the upwardly revised 188,000 reported a week earlier, the Labor Department said.

Irish Economy Returns to Growth, Boosting Eurozone Hopes

Ireland’s GDP was 3.9% higher than in the first quarter of the year, recovering some ground after its economy contracted.

After President Trump replaced expiring tariffs with a host of new ones, here is what to expect

The president has replaced expiring tariffs with a host of new ones. Here is what to expect.

This is the End and a New Beginning

I've been thinking about this for some time.After 21 years of writing this blog almost daily, I've decided to stop writing the daily updates on the blog.However, the economic data "IV" is still in my arm, and I'll be writing a weekly economic summary at the end of each week (via…

Sunday Night Futures

Weekend: • Schedule for Week of January 11, 2026 Monday: • No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 futures are down 16 and DOW futures are down 104 (fair value). Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at…

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Increased 4.4% Year-over-year

Hotel occupancy was weak in 2025.   It is difficult to tell early in the year because travel is always weak in early January.  From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 3 JanuaryThe U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest…

Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week:Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October • The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3 • 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December • Asking Rents Decline Year-over-year…

Schedule for Week of January 11, 2026

The key reports this week are December CPI, Existing Home Sales and November Retail Sales. Also, New Home Sales for September and October will be released. For manufacturing, the December Industrial Production report and the January New York and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys…

The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3 A brief excerpt: During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity - jokingly calling it the “Home ATM” - and this contributed to the subsequent…

Fed's Flow of Funds: Household Net Worth Increased $6.1 Trillion in Q3

The Federal Reserve released the Q3 2025 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States. The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $181.6 trillion during the third quarter of 2025. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities…

Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October A brief excerpt: Note: The Census Bureau is still catching up. They released Start data for September and October today, but we are still missing November data.…

Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: Privately-owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,246,000. This is 4.6 percent below the revised September estimate of 1,306,000 and is 7.8 percent below the October…

Comments on December Employment Report

The headline jobs number in the December employment report was slightly below expectations, however October and November were revised down by 76,000. The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%.Earlier: December Employment Report: 50 thousand Jobs, 4.4% Unemployment RatePrime (25 to…

December Employment Report: 50 thousand Jobs, 4.4% Unemployment Rate

From the BLS: Employment Situation Both total nonfarm payroll employment (+50,000) and the unemployment rate (4.4 percent) changed little in December, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in food services and drinking places,…

Friday: Employment Report, Housing Starts, Flow of Funds

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: • At 8:30 AM ET,: Employment Report for December.   The consensus is for 55,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decline to 4.5%. • At 10:00 AM: Housing Starts for September…

December Employment Preview

On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for December. The consensus is for 55,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to decrease to 4.5%. There were 64,000 jobs added in November, and the unemployment rate was at 4.6%. From Goldman Sachs: We…

Wholesale Used Car Prices Increased Slightly in December; Up 0.4% Year-over-year

From Manheim Consulting today: Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index: December 2025 TrendsThe Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 205.5, reflecting a 0.4% increase for wholesale used-vehicle prices (adjusted for mix, mileage, and seasonality) compared to December 2024.…

Trade Deficit Decreased to $29.4 Billion in October

The Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported: The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $29.4 billion in October, down $18.8 billion from $48.1 billion in September, revised. October…

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 208,000

The DOL reported: In the week ending January 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 208,000, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 199,000 to 200,000. The 4-week moving…

Thursday: Trade Deficit, Unemployment Claims

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday: • At 8:30 A ET, Trade Balance report for November from the Census Bureau. The consensus is the trade deficit to be $59.4 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $52.8 billion in…

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December A brief excerpt: Last year (2025) might have seen the lowest number of existing home sales since 1995. It will be close! Even if sales beat 2024 sales, these will be the two…

ISM® Services Index Increased to 54.4% in December

(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 54.4%, up from 52.6% the previous month. The employment index increased to 52.0%, up from 48.9%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 54.4%…

BLS: Job Openings Declined to 7.1 million in November

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 7.1 million in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires were little changed and total separations were unchanged at 5.1 million each.…