Category: Crypto

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Today, Texas State Representative Giovanni Capriglione officially filed for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill for the state of Texas during a 𝕏 spaces with Dennis Porter of Satoshi Action Fund, a Bitcoin advocacy organization working with politicians on pro-Bitcoin legislation.

To summarize, the bill would effectively:

Buy and hold bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset.Securely store the BTC in cold storage for at least five years.Allow Texas residents to donate bitcoin to the reserve.Ensure transparency via yearly reports and audits. Allow state agencies to accept cryptocurrencies, and convert them to bitcoin. Establish rules for security, donations, and management.

“This Act takes effect immediately if it receives a 12 vote of two-thirds of all the members elected to each house, as 13 provided by Section 39, Article III, Texas Constitution,” the legislation states. “If this Act 14 does not receive the vote necessary for immediate effect, this Act 15 takes effect September 1, 2025.”

This is yet another step towards America embracing Bitcoin, fueled by President-elect Donald Trump and Senator Cynthia Lummis’ lead from introducing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill for the United States earlier this year. The hype around implementing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve has caused a snowball effect of other states and countries introducing legislation to adopt one as well. Other states like Pennsylvania and countries like Russia, Brazil, and Poland are among those introducing bills for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

“Chairman Capriglione is the Chair of the Texas Pensions, Investments, and Financial Services Committee so this bill has legs!” commented Lee Bratcher, President of the Texas Blockchain Council. “No taxpayer funds will be spent on the bitcoin.”

Bitcoin’s cyclical nature has captivated investors for over a decade, and tools like the Realized Cap HODL Waves offer a window into the psychology of the market. As an adaptation of the traditional HODL waves, this indicator provides crucial insights by weighting age bands by the realized price—the cost basis of Bitcoin held in wallets at any given time.

Currently, the six-month-and-below band sits at ~55%, signaling a market with room to grow before reaching overheated levels historically seen around 80%. In this article, we’ll dive into the details of Realized Cap HODL Waves, what they tell us about the market, and how investors can use this tool to better navigate Bitcoin’s price cycles.

When the 6-month and below #Bitcoin Realized Cap HODL Waves bands surpass ~80%, it’s a good indication the market is over-heated, and a major price peak is likely… 🔥

Currently we’re at around 55%, plenty of upside to go for #BTC!👆 pic.twitter.com/ZL5P7USMo9

— Bitcoin Magazine Pro (@BitcoinMagPro) December 12, 2024

Click here to view the Realized Cap HODL Waves live chart on Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Understanding Realized Cap HODL Waves

At its core, the Realized Cap HODL Waves chart shows the cost basis of Bitcoin held in wallets, grouped into different age brackets. Unlike traditional HODL waves, which track the total supply of Bitcoin, this chart accounts for the realized value—a measure of the price at which Bitcoin was last moved.

The key insight? Younger age bands (e.g., coins held for six months or less) tend to dominate during bullish phases, reflecting rising market optimism. Conversely, older age bands gain prominence during bearish phases, often coinciding with market bottoms when investor sentiment is subdued.

This dynamic allows the chart to serve as a barometer for market cycles, identifying periods of overheating or underpricing with remarkable accuracy.

Why 80% Is Critical: Historical Context

The chart reveals that when short-term holders—represented by the six-month-and-below age bands—make up 80% or more of the total realized cap, Bitcoin is often nearing a major market peak. This level historically aligns with euphoric price action, where speculative mania drives the market.

For example:

2013 Bull Market: The six-month band surpassed 80% during Bitcoin’s meteoric rise, marking the peak of the cycle.2017 Bull Market: A similar pattern occurred as Bitcoin reached its then-all-time high of $20,000.2021 Bull Market: Peaks in the short-term bands preceded corrections, reinforcing the indicator’s predictive value.

At the current ~55% level, there is ample room for Bitcoin to grow before reaching the overheated territory historically seen near 80%.

What the Data Tells Us Today

The latest Chart of the Day, shared by Bitcoin Magazine Pro, underscores the importance of this indicator. Here are the key takeaways:

Room for Growth: With the six-month-and-below bands at 55%, the market appears to be in a healthy growth phase with significant upside potential.No Overheating Yet: Historically, overheating occurs when these bands exceed 80%. This suggests Bitcoin has room to run before encountering similar conditions.Cycle Perspective: The current cycle aligns with early-to-mid-stage bull market behavior, where newer investors are accumulating, and optimism is building.

The ETF Effect: How Bitcoin ETFs Could Impact Realized Cap HODL Waves

Unlike previous Bitcoin cycles, 2024 marks a significant shift with the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs. These financial products, designed to provide institutional and retail investors easy exposure to Bitcoin, have the potential to reshape the on-chain data reported by tools like Realized Cap HODL Waves. While this indicator has historically been a reliable measure of market cycles and price peaks, the dynamics of this cycle may differ.

Bitcoin ETFs aggregate investments from numerous participants into centralized custodial wallets, reducing the number of active on-chain addresses and transactions. This centralization introduces unique challenges when interpreting Realized Cap HODL Waves:

Younger Age Bands May Underestimate Market Activity: ETF trading occurs off-chain, meaning that short-term transactions and active addresses might be underrepresented in the six-month-and-below bands. As a result, the indicator could suggest less market enthusiasm than is actually present.Older Age Bands May Dominate: Long-term Bitcoin holdings within ETFs could shift realized value into higher age bands, making it appear that the market is more conservative and less dynamic than in previous cycles.

While ETFs bring increased liquidity and price discovery through traditional markets, they also introduce complexities for on-chain analysis. This shift highlights the importance of adapting how we interpret indicators like Realized Cap HODL Waves in the context of evolving market structures.

Why This Cycle May Be Different

With Bitcoin ETFs now playing a central role, this cycle may not follow the same patterns as previous ones. The historical success of Realized Cap HODL Waves in identifying price peaks remains noteworthy, but investors should consider that ETFs represent a new variable. Increased adoption via ETFs could lead to more significant price movements that are less directly visible in on-chain data.

As always, it’s crucial not to rely solely on one indicator for investment decisions. Tools like Realized Cap HODL Waves are best used to supplement broader market analysis, providing valuable insights into underlying market trends. By combining on-chain indicators with ETF inflow data and other metrics, investors can gain a clearer and more comprehensive understanding of Bitcoin’s price dynamics in this new era.

How Investors Can Use Realized Cap HODL Waves

For investors, the Realized Cap HODL Waves chart offers actionable insights:

Market Sentiment: Use the six-month band as a gauge of market euphoria or fear. Higher percentages indicate bullish sentiment, while lower percentages often signal consolidation or accumulation phases.Cycle Timing: Peaks in younger age bands often precede corrections. Monitoring these levels can help investors manage risk during bullish cycles.Strategic Positioning: Understanding when the market is overheating can help long-term holders optimize their exit strategies, while buyers may find opportunities during periods dominated by older age bands.

Conclusion: Bullish Outlook with Room to Run

The Realized Cap HODL Waves chart is an invaluable tool for understanding Bitcoin’s price cycles. With the six-month-and-below bands currently at 55%, the market shows plenty of upside potential before hitting overheated levels. For investors, this means the current phase offers an attractive opportunity to capitalize on Bitcoin’s growth trajectory.

As always, it’s crucial to combine this indicator with other tools and fundamental analysis. To explore more live data and stay updated on Bitcoin’s price action, visit Bitcoin Magazine Pro.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

For years, Bitcoin skeptics have watched from the sidelines, waiting for a moment to join the ride, only to convince themselves that they’ve already missed the boat. However, the reality tells a different story. Not only is it not too late, but Bitcoin continues to prove itself as a superior investment option compared to traditional assets—whether you have $25 a week to spare or millions to allocate.

Bitcoin Magazine Pro has a free portfolio analysis tool, Dollar Cost Average (DCA) Strategies, which enables investors to measure Bitcoin’s performance against other leading assets like gold, the Dow Jones (DJI), and Apple (AAPL) stock. This powerful tool provides hard data to demonstrate how consistent, disciplined investing over time can lead to outsized returns, even with modest amounts.

The Bitcoin Magazine Pro Dollar Cost Average Strategies tool helps you explore different DCA parameters to see how your portfolio would have performed across different time horizons and investment levels.

What Is Bitcoin Dollar Cost Averaging?

Dollar cost averaging involves investing a fixed amount of money at regular intervals, regardless of the asset’s price. This strategy eliminates emotional decision-making and smooths out the effects of market volatility. By consistently buying Bitcoin over a defined period, investors benefit from market dips while building their portfolios over time.

Outperforming Traditional Assets Across Timeframes

Let’s break down the numbers using the DCA Strategies tool, starting with the last six months to emphasize recent performance::

6 Months:
Investing $25 weekly in Bitcoin would have turned $675 into $985.56, a 46.01% return. Meanwhile: Gold increased just 5.82%. Apple (AAPL) gained 10.32%. The Dow Jones (DJI) delivered a mere 7.34%.1 Year:
With a total investment of $1,325 in Bitcoin, your portfolio would now be worth $2,140.20, reflecting a 61.52% return. By comparison: Gold increased by 14.50%. Apple gained 22.80%. The Dow Jones grew by only 11.36%.2 Years:
A $25 weekly investment totaling $2,650 would now be valued at $7,145.42—a 169.64% return. Meanwhile: Gold rose by 26.56%. Apple grew by 36.22%. The Dow Jones delivered 21.13%.4 Years:
The long-term case is even stronger. A $5,250 investment would now be worth $14,877.77, representing an incredible 183.39% return. In the same period: Gold increased by 37.26%. Apple gained 54.05%. The Dow Jones grew 27.32%.

Across every timeframe, Bitcoin outpaces traditional assets, offering compelling returns even during short-term periods of six months to a year.

Why Timing the Market Doesn’t Matter

For investors hesitant about entering the market now, it’s important to understand that Bitcoin’s long-term performance speaks for itself. Historical data shows that adopting a DCA strategy minimizes the risk of market timing while amplifying returns over time. Even small, regular investments compound significantly when Bitcoin appreciates.

Moreover, Bitcoin is no longer seen as a speculative asset but as a reliable store of value in a volatile economic landscape. With institutional adoption, technological advancements, and increasing scarcity due to its fixed supply, Bitcoin’s long-term outlook remains overwhelmingly positive.

Why You’re Still Early

The global adoption of Bitcoin is still in its infancy. Despite its impressive performance, Bitcoin’s total market capitalization is small compared to traditional asset classes like gold or equities. This means there’s still significant room for growth as more individuals, institutions, and even governments recognize its utility and value.

Despite Bitcoin’s impressive track record of outperforming gold in terms of returns, its market capitalization at the time of writing stands at only 10.82% of gold’s market cap. This highlights significant growth potential; at current market prices, Bitcoin would need to increase 9.24 times to reach parity with gold, translating to a projected price of $934,541 per BTC.  

This price target is in line with recent Bitcoin forecasts, including Eric Trump’s confident projection that Bitcoin’s price will reach $1 million.

With tools like Bitcoin Magazine Pro’s DCA Strategies, anyone can explore how small, regular investments can create exponential growth over time. Whether your starting point is $25 per week or $2,500, the data proves one thing: it’s never too late to start investing in Bitcoin.

A Tool for Every Investor

The DCA Strategies tool available on Bitcoin Magazine Pro allows you to customize your investment parameters, including purchase amounts, frequencies, and start dates. This flexibility empowers investors to create tailored strategies that align with their financial goals and time horizons.

The tool also provides comparative analysis against other assets, so you can clearly see how Bitcoin outperforms over time. This isn’t just a theoretical exercise—it’s actionable insight for anyone serious about building long-term wealth.

Conclusion: The Time to Act Is Now

For those sitting on the fence, thinking they’ve missed their chance, the data is clear: Bitcoin is not only a viable investment—it’s the best-performing asset of the decade. With a DCA strategy, even the most cautious investor can start small and reap the rewards of long-term growth.

It’s time to stop watching from the sidelines. Use Bitcoin Magazine Pro’s Dollar Cost Average Strategies tool to craft your investment approach today. If history repeats itself—and there’s every reason to believe it will—Bitcoin’s future is brighter than ever.

To explore live data and stay informed on the latest analysis, visit bitcoinmagazinepro.com.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This article is a Take. Opinions expressed are entirely the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, said he prefers investing in “hard money” like bitcoin and gold over debt assets, given rising global indebtedness.

In a speech at the Abu Dhabi Finance Week conference, the veteran investor referred to “unprecedented levels” of debt seen in all major countries, including the United States and China, stressing that current levels are unsustainable.

“It is impossible for these countries to be able to not have a debt crisis in the years ahead that will lead to a great decline of [money] value,” Dalio said.

He continued that he wants to “steer away from debt assets like bonds and debt, and have some hard money like gold and bitcoin.” Dalio sees bitcoin and gold as stable hedges against economic uncertainty.

The billionaire investor was not always so keen on bitcoin. Previously, Dalio believed crypto would not succeed as hoped. But he has emerged as a major bitcoin advocate in recent years.

In 2022, Dalio said allocating up to 2% of a portfolio to bitcoin, in addition to gold, is reasonable to hedge against inflation. 

Dalio’s take further legitimizes bitcoin as a hedge against unsound monetary policies. As nations continue debasing fiat currencies, bitcoin’s fixed supply makes it a safe haven.

If you’ve bought bitcoin, chances are that you want to self-custody. Without self-custody, you don’t really have bitcoin, so why wouldn’t you? Using a hardware device to set up an offline bitcoin wallet is generally recommended. But backing up your wallet is actually much more important than having a hardware wallet. Yet, bitcoin backups are often ignored as an afterthought.

We’ll now be looking into why backing up your bitcoin wallet is crucial, but more importantly how to properly do it with the right products to secure your bitcoin holdings for multiple generations without trusted third parties.

Backup First

If you don’t self-custody and rely on a trusted third party like an exchange, custodian or broker, you may have good reasons for this, but perhaps you would be better off thinking about holding your own keys. As the adage goes, not your keys, not your…

Now of course, if you only have $10 or $50 worth of bitcoin in self-custody, backing up your wallet may not be relevant at this time. But if, for example, you hold a month’s worth of salary, a year’s worth of savings or even more than 5% of your net worth, then a backup may be absolutely essential to secure your bitcoin holdings.

You should backup your bitcoin because electronics and hardware devices fail. That’s not specific to bitcoin or to openly criticize hardware wallet manufacturers. Rather, hardware wallets are similar to other general consumer electronics such as computers and USB keys, in that they break over time due to life hazards.

Having multiple keys within a multisig wallet may help reduce this risk of hardware failure, but is it enough for you to feel comfortable for the next 30 years? If not, read on. Paper backups are generally included when you buy a hardware wallet, but well, they’re paper. Paper is at risk of loss, shredding, misplacement, ink may fade, etc… Using paper for your backup is not a good idea. You should not store highly sensitive and perhaps incredibly valuable data onto paper for many years.

Medium of Storage

Over the years, and since Cryptosteel announced the world’s first metal backup back in 2013, we have seen many different formats of bitcoin metal backups by multiple different vendors. Which one is the preferred today? Is there any better format between cassettes, tiles, plates, punch cards and others?

First things first, make sure that your backup is built with high grade stainless steel, which is highly durable. Titanium options may also be a good alternative. Any other medium of storage used by existing manufacturers or recommended by free DIY options may be more fragile and prone to complete data loss in case of fire or other corrosive hazards (such as Aluminium).

Formats also exist in various options, such as flat cassettes with moving tiles, punching metal cards, ring tiles mounted onto a core, punchable tubes, punchable rings threaded onto a core, and more. So, which one is the best and why?

We need to establish the needs of someone who is backing their bitcoin seed phrase. The most important aspect is that it should be simple. Some would argue that’s not the priority but it really is. If it is difficult or inconvenient to use, then few people will do it right, while many others may be unable to complete a successful backup. Of course, a good bitcoin backup must be durable, recoverable, affordable and private, but that should almost be basic requirements for any product.

Anatomy of a Good Backup

We cannot start this discussion without sharing Lopp’s comprehensive technical overview of what makes a good seed phrase backup, based on his past research testing various models of metal bitcoin backups. The following analysis is more akin to an opinionated view of metal bitcoin backups as of 2024 focused on usability, security and durability.

A simple way to backup your bitcoin should require no extra tooling. That’s the best way to keep things simple for anyone looking to durably backup their bitcoin holdings. Requiring no tools is also safer with no risk of harm due to poor usage of tools. It’s also more discrete and enjoyable as there should be no noise from the process of making a backup. A larger number of people are able to backup their holdings if it does not require specialized equipment, such as sharp items, hammers, anvils or punches.

Obviously, your backup must be durable. That’s the whole point. We’ve established that stainless steel is the best alloy to rely on. But about the format? Over the years, we’ve seen different shapes of backups. What matters is that the format be resistant to life hazards, including fire, flood, tons of weight press and extreme changes in any of these conditions. We’re concerned about concrete life risks such as floods, hurricanes, as well as house and apartment fires, which can cause high temperatures but also buildings to crumble.

Options for backup formats usually fall within 6 categories to record data: sliding, stamping, engraving, etching, punching and stacking.

Sliding

Introduced in 2013 by Cryptosteel, the sliding backup design is a rail-based device in which you slide tiles, such as Cassette by Cryptosteel, Simbit or Billfodl. They are quite easy to set up, not requiring specialized tooling and are resistant to most risks such as corrosion from acid, heat from fire, and water floods. But this design may pose some risks of partial or even complete data loss if the medium gets bent or twisted by a very heavy weight press.

Vendor Reviews: Cryptosteel Cassette, Simbit, Ellipal Mnemonic Metal, Bunkeroid, HODL Wallet (discontinued), Billfodl (discontinued), Steeldisk (discontinued)

Engraving

Similar to stamping, engraving does not necessarily require stamps, but can be done with various sharp tools to permanently mark the metal, such as dremel, small chisels, and gravers. Of course, engraving can be done on many different formats of metal backups, but require even more specialized tools and security measures to avoid injuries than with stamping.

Vendor Reviews: SteelWallet (DIY), Steelki, CryptoVault (discontinued), Crypto Key Stack (discontinued)

Etching

Etching is used to mark metal backups with the corrosive action of an acid or electrochemical process. This is probably the least popular way to mark metal backups but is usually available as an option with vendors that rely on engraving for imprinting a backup in metal. It relies on highly specialized tools and is hazardous due to the dangerous chemical products required.

Vendor Reviews: Steelki, Black Seed Ink, Cryptoetch (discontinued), SteelWallet (DIY), CryptoVault (discontinued), Crypto Key Stack (discontinued)

Stamping

Usually the most widespread technique in both commercial and DIY products, stamping is a way to mark metal backups of different formats, from plates to hexagonal tubular shapes, fender washers and rings. Stamping requires medium to advanced technical skills, as it requires using tools, such as hammers, stamps and optional jig and guiding rails to ensure stamping is done safely with the correct alignment of characters. Wearing protective gears for eyes and fingers is usually recommended for safety.

Vendor Reviews: Coldbit, DIY BulletProof Bitcoin, Crypto Keys (discontinued), Hodlinox (discontinued), SAFU Ninja (DIY), Safe Seed, Seedor, Cryptotag

Punching

Similar to stamping, punching requires medium to advanced technical skills as special tools such as punches and hammers are used to mark metal permanently. It’s also quite popular as stamping, and requires only one single shape to punch, instead of multiple unique stamps. It’s usually done on metal plates with grids as well as hexagonal tubular shapes. It can be quite difficult to mark metal punching without making errors but also reading data may prove inconvenient for recovery. Wearing protective gears for eyes and fingers is usually recommended for safety.

Vendor Reviews: Blockplate, Seedplate, Smallseed, Attenuo (discontinued), Steelwallet, Coldkeys S, Bitplate Domino

Stacking

One of the least widespread commercial products, and perhaps most underappreciated formats is to stack tiles and other ring parts, such as fender washers. This design is compatible with beginners having low levels of technical skills, and DIY enthusiasts. The order and completeness of seed phrases is absolutely crucial for recovery, so this design must have reliable cotter-pins acting as closing and retention clips, or should include numbering for each word. Other than that, assembling these products does not require any tools, except for DIY options using the “stacking” design combined with “stamping”, for instance.

Vendor Reviews: Cryptosteel Capsule, Cryptosteel Seed12, SAFU Ninja DIY

Additional Considerations

Affordability

How much does a backup cost? The price at which a bitcoin backup product is available is an important criteria for many consumers. This is also true for hardware wallet manufacturers who may consider bundling their hardware devices with backup products. A price point under $50 is considered affordable. Anything over 100$ is considered premium, while the most common pricing is within the $50-100 range usually.

Erasability

Can errors be made and corrected without rendering the backup obsolete? Very few backup formats are editable and erasable. This can be useful for error correction, backup reuse with new seed phrases and also for educational content. It’s also a great benefit to discard a seed phrase backup privately, without leaking any sensitive information. Usually, the “stacking” model is the only compatible format to erase a backup.

Tamper-Evidence

Is it obvious if someone saw or made a copy of a backup? Revealing that a backup has been viewed by a third party is an important feature for anyone worried about the “evil maid attack”. Usually, tamper-evident seals are DIY and do not come built into the backup design. Very few backups have such seals integrated as part of the core product, though it is a useful privacy and security add-on.

Compactness

How small is a backup in size to hide it easily? The dimensions of a backup matter quite a lot to be able to hide it in some safe place, but also from a durability standpoint. A small and compact backup is less likely to bend to tons of weight pressure.

Seed12 as a Recommended Backup

Based on the previous discussion, our recommended bitcoin self-custody backup as of December 2024 is the Seed12 by Cryptosteel. Assemble your backup by threading character tiles onto the core, encasing them in an optional protective capsule and tamper-proof seal.

Affordable: For $30, the Seed12 Core and $59 the Seed12 Security Kit are priced quite competitively to other commercial backups. Of course, DIY options remain more affordable for constrained budgets. Durable: Made from high grade stainless steel, Seed12 is highly resistant to impact, flood and fire temperatures. Compact: Packaged in a matchbox-sized case.No tools: This backup system requires no tools, such as hammers or sharp punches, making it easy and safe to set up. Erasable: As one of the smallest backup kits ever designed, it is also erasable and reusable, built with a modular tile system for easy error correction. Flexible: Consumers can purchase additional parts and only pay for what they use, such as extra tiles, capsules or tamper-proof seals.

The Right Conditions to Backup

Now that we’ve covered most aspects and considerations of what makes a good bitcoin backup, let’s briefly cover how and where to actually set it up. When setting up your bitcoin backup, ensure the following:

Secure Environment: Choose a private, distraction-free space to set up your backup without risk of being overheard or observed.Backup Location: Store in a secure, fireproof, and waterproof location, such as a home safe or a safety deposit box for additional security.Redundancy: Create multiple backups and store them in geographically separated locations.Privacy Measures: Use tamper-evident seals or concealment techniques to detect or prevent unauthorized access.Documentation: Clearly label backups and write a documented plan to help yourself and your trusted ones to recover your bitcoin with your backups.Regular Checks: Periodically verify the backup’s condition and accessibility while ensuring it remains private and simple to use to recover your bitcoin.

If you have bitcoin in self-custody, you must have a good backup. Backing up your bitcoin is not just a precaution—it’s a necessity for securing your holdings over the long term. With the right materials, such as stainless steel or titanium, and careful attention to format, usability, and durability, you can ensure your backup withstands life’s challenges. Whether you opt for sliding, stamping, punching, or stacking designs, prioritize simplicity and reliability. By following proper setup conditions and choosing high-quality products built to last, you can protect your bitcoin for generations without relying on third parties.

This is a guest post by Thibaud. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.

Follow Nikolaus On 𝕏 Here For Daily Posts

Today, Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart announced that MicroStrategy (MSTR) is expected to enter into the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) later this month on December 23.

$MSTR is likely to be added to $QQQ on 12/23 (w/ announcement coming 12/13). Moderna likely to get boot (symbolic). Below is best guess of adds/drops via @JSeyff. Likely a 0.47% weight (40th biggest holding). There’s $550b of ETFs tracking the index. S&P 500 add next yr prob. pic.twitter.com/rmTavtvWQL

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) December 10, 2024

“MicroStrategy will likely enter the Nasdaq 100 Index on Dec. 23, and we expect net buying of at least $2.1 billion in shares by ETFs to follow, equal to about 20% of daily volume,” Seyffart explained. “Joining the S&P 500 will be tougher because of a lack of profit, though an accounting-rule change surrounding Bitcoin valuations could make MicroStrategy eligible in 2025.”

Net buying of $2.1 billion would be an added boost to MSTR, which has already outperformed most major stocks and also bitcoin this year — up 450% year-to-date at the time of writing. MSTR, powered by its relentless bitcoin acquisition strategy, has seen its stock skyrocket to a new all time high this year for the first time since March 10, 2000.

MSTR has already acquired over 170,000 bitcoin since announcing its plans to raise $42 billion to purchase more BTC in late October. 

Balchunas stated that the official announcement of MSTR getting added to QQQ is expected to come this Friday, December 13.

“Again this is our best estimate of what will go down,” Balchunas concluded. “We don’t work at Nasdaq. FYI!”

Eric Trump, Executive Vice President of the Trump Organization and son of United States President-elect Donald Trump, recently shared his perspective on Bitcoin during an exclusive backstage interview with Frank Corva, Business-to-Business Correspondent for Bitcoin Magazine, at the Bitcoin MENA 2024 Conference. Trump highlighted Bitcoin’s transformative potential, comparing it to real estate, the cornerstone of his family’s business, while emphasizing its unique advantages as a hedge for traditional investors.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Eric Trump explains why #Bitcoin is a better investment than real estate. pic.twitter.com/YRUJhIhSNT

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) December 10, 2024

From Real Estate to Bitcoin

As a self-proclaimed “bricks-and-mortar guy,” Trump explained his family’s deep connection to real estate. “I’ve spent my entire life walking through construction sites,” he said, describing the tangible nature of real estate and its energy. Yet, he recognized the limitations of physical assets, such as their illiquidity and inability to adapt to global market shifts.

“If I have a hotel, I can spend five years building it, and if I want to sell that hotel, it could take me two years to sell the property,” Trump noted. He acknowledged the many benefits of real estate, including leverage and tax advantages, but pointed out its significant drawback: “Real estate is illiquid.”

This is where Trump sees Bitcoin as a revolutionary alternative. “What’s a better hedge to real estate than something that’s instantaneously liquid?” he asked.

Bitcoin as a Transportable and Accessible Asset

Trump elaborated on Bitcoin’s portability compared to real estate. “I can’t take Trump Tower on 57th and 5th and move it to London, Singapore, or the UAE if those markets happen to be better. But Bitcoin is transportable—it’s digital,” he said.

He also praised Bitcoin for eliminating intermediaries and reducing costs. “There are no brokers, no bankers, no lawyers, no title companies, no middlemen,” he said. Unlike real estate, Bitcoin carries no risk of physical damage from fires, floods, or natural disasters.

Democratizing Investment Opportunities

Beyond its technical advantages, Trump highlighted Bitcoin’s role in democratizing access to wealth-building opportunities. While real estate investments often require substantial capital and expertise, Bitcoin provides an entry point for those who might not have significant resources.

“Building or buying a house is out of reach for 99% of people,” Trump said. “They can’t go out and build a 70- or 80-story building on Fifth Avenue in New York. Entry costs are too high.” Bitcoin, however, offers an asset that is not only accessible but has historically delivered higher returns than most real estate investments.

Trump emphasized the potential for Bitcoin to empower people in developing countries. “Bitcoin gives people who otherwise wouldn’t have a chance the opportunity to invest, to succeed, to maybe get lucky and transform their lives,” he said.

Eric Trump’s perspective on Bitcoin as a hedge for real estate investors complements the ongoing conversation about how Bitcoin could reshape the path to homeownership, especially for younger generations priced out of traditional housing markets. In a previous Bitcoin Magazine article, I explored how Bitcoin serves as the ultimate savings tool, offering a tangible pathway to achieving the dream of homeownership in a landscape where housing prices feel increasingly unattainable. Could a single Bitcoin buy a house in the near future? As the Bitcoin Magazine Pro tweet suggests, the answer might just surprise us, as Bitcoin continues to transform both personal finance and global markets.

In 8 years:
🏡 Median 🇺🇸 home price in #BTC = -99% 🥇
2016: 664 BTC
2024: 4.8 BTC

💵 Median 🇺🇸 home price in $USD = +50% 😱
2016: $288K
2024: $434K

Could 1 #Bitcoin buy your dream home in 2028? 👀 pic.twitter.com/Op4NfrHUhG

— Bitcoin Magazine Pro (@BitcoinMagPro) November 14, 2024

“Make No Mistake: It’s the Future”

As a proponent of long-term investment strategies, Trump confidently stated his belief in Bitcoin’s future. “Make no mistake: it’s the future,” he declared. “The people who embrace it early are going to succeed. Those who don’t will, as I said before, get left behind.”

Trump’s insights align with growing recognition of Bitcoin’s potential as a hedge against traditional assets, offering investors liquidity, accessibility, and global versatility. For real estate investors and others, Bitcoin may represent not just a hedge, but a cornerstone of the future financial landscape.

This interview underscores the increasing interest in Bitcoin among influential figures, highlighting its evolution from a speculative asset to a vital component of modern investment portfolios.

Watch the Bitcoin MENA 2024 Conference Day 2 Livestream. Featuring leading Bitcoin industry figures across the Middle East, North Africa, and around the globe Bitcoin MENA is spurring the next chapter of global Bitcoin adoption!

Eric Trump, a prominent American businessman, executive vice president of the Trump Organization, and son of United States President-elect Donald Trump delivered a striking prediction at the Bitcoin MENA event in Abu Dhabi on Dec. 10. He confidently declared that Bitcoin will someday reach a value of $1 million per BTC.

“I am confident that Bitcoin is going to hit $1 million.”

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 President Donald Trump’s son, Eric Trump says, “I am confident that #Bitcoin is going to hit $1 million.” 🚀 pic.twitter.com/1SqScvddl2

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) December 10, 2024

Trump’s keynote address showcased his belief in Bitcoin as a revolutionary “financial paradigm” with the potential to reshape the global economy. He expressed certainty that its value will soar in the years ahead.

Bitcoin: A Global Asset and Hedge

Trump described Bitcoin as far more than a typical asset, emphasizing its role as a “global asset” that safeguards against economic uncertainty and unforeseen disruptions.

“It’s a store of value. It’s a hedge against inflation. It’s a hedge against political turmoil, political instability, acts of God, hurricanes, fires, floods, tornadoes, guys. That’s what makes it so powerful,” Trump stated.

He also highlighted Bitcoin’s decentralized system, which operates without traditional intermediaries, contrasting it with the inefficiencies and high fees associated with conventional financial systems.

Scarcity Driving Value

Trump pointed to Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million as a critical factor behind its enduring appeal. Scarcity, he argued, is a defining feature that ensures its long-term value and places it in a league of its own.

A Familiar Pattern of Adoption

Drawing parallels to the slow adoption of groundbreaking technologies like email, Trump argued that hesitation to embrace change is nothing new. He shared a story about a friend who dismissed Bitcoin only to see his own bank adopt it shortly afterward.

“People are slow as hell to adapt to new technology,” Trump remarked, underscoring the importance of early adoption.

NEW: Eric Trump just delivered one of the most bullish #Bitcoin speeches ever in the capital of the UAE 🇦🇪

“America is going to lead the digital revolution” 🙌 pic.twitter.com/dsyPWQiguI

— Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) December 10, 2024

The Future Belongs to Those Who Adapt

Trump’s confidence extended beyond price predictions, as he forecasted a world where businesses and governments would need to adapt to the growing influence of Bitcoin. He asserted that early adopters will reap the rewards of this transformation.

“We’re going to see that banks have to adapt. We’re going to see that governments have to adapt, and governments will adapt. […] Those who embrace Bitcoin, those who embrace this digital revolution, those who embrace digital currency, the people who come in early are going to be the people who win.”

Trump concluded his address with a message of celebration, acknowledging Bitcoin’s recent milestone of surpassing $100,000 for the first time.

“Bitcoiners, I love you. The Trump family loves you. It’s truly a great honor to be here today,” he said.

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The Bitcoin market has long been characterized by cyclical movements and adoption-driven growth, and investors frequently seek tools to better understand and anticipate these cycles. One such tool is the Golden Ratio Multiplier—a Bitcoin-specific indicator developed by Philip Swift, Managing Director of Bitcoin Magazine Pro. This article delves into the intricacies of the indicator and analyzes the recent Chart of the Day, which provides a data-driven outlook on Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

The #Bitcoin Golden Ratio Multiplier 1.6x level, currently at ~$100,000, has once again acted as resistance for #BTC price action! 🐻

If we can rally through this level, then ~$127,000 is our next major target! 🎯 pic.twitter.com/RCRKYFDAZt

— Bitcoin Magazine Pro (@BitcoinMagPro) December 10, 2024

Click here to view the live Golden Ratio Multiplier chart on Bitcoin Magazine Pro for free.

Understanding the Golden Ratio Multiplier

The Golden Ratio Multiplier is a charting tool designed to examine Bitcoin’s long-term adoption curve and market cycles. At its core, the indicator utilizes multiples of the 350-day moving average (350DMA) to pinpoint areas of significant price resistance or market cycle peaks. These multiples are based on two foundational mathematical principles:

The Golden Ratio (1.6)The Fibonacci Sequence (0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, etc.)

The Golden Ratio and Fibonacci sequence have consistently shown relevance in nature, finance, and trading, making them ideal for modeling Bitcoin’s logarithmic price growth over time. Historically, Bitcoin’s price intracycle highs and major market cycle peaks align with Fibonacci-based multiples of the 350DMA. This makes the Golden Ratio Multiplier an invaluable tool for identifying points of price resistance as Bitcoin’s adoption progresses.

How It Works

The chart plots Bitcoin’s price against key Fibonacci multiples of the 350DMA, such as 1.6x (the golden ratio), 2x, and 3x. These levels have proven effective at indicating:

Intracycle highs: Points where Bitcoin’s price experiences short-term resistance during a market cycle.Major cycle peaks: Long-term market tops that signal the end of a bull run.

The decreasing Fibonacci sequence multiples reflect Bitcoin’s maturing market. As adoption expands and Bitcoin’s market capitalization grows, its price volatility and exponential growth naturally diminish. Consequently, the highest Fibonacci multiples (e.g., 21x) are less relevant in today’s market, while lower multiples like 2x and 3x become more critical for analysis.

Chart of the Day Analysis: $100,000 Resistance

The Chart of the Day, published on Bitcoin Magazine Pro’s X profile, highlights Bitcoin’s current interaction with the 1.6x multiple of the 350DMA, which is approximately $100,000. As seen in the chart, this level has repeatedly acted as a strong resistance zone for Bitcoin’s price.

Key Observations from the Chart

Historical Significance of the 1.6x Level: This level has served as a critical resistance point in past cycles, and its current status as a psychological milestone ($100,000) further reinforces its importance.Potential for Breakout: If Bitcoin manages to rally above the 1.6x level, the next significant target is the 2x multiple, around $127,000. This aligns with the Golden Ratio Multiplier’s long-term prediction of decreasing Fibonacci-level peaks.

Why $100,000 Matters

The $100,000 mark not only represents a significant Fibonacci multiple but also a major psychological barrier in the market. Breaking through this level could reignite bullish sentiment, drawing in new investors and potentially leading to a parabolic price move toward the $127,000 resistance.

What Makes This Indicator Unique?

The Golden Ratio Multiplier stands out because it integrates Bitcoin’s adoption curve into its calculations. As a tool tailored for Bitcoin’s early adoption phase, it accounts for the logarithmic nature of Bitcoin’s price growth. By identifying price levels that align with natural adoption dynamics, the indicator offers:

Clarity on Market Cycles: Helps investors identify intracycle highs and cycle peaks.Risk Management Guidance: Provides a framework for understanding when the market may be overstretched and where investors might consider adjusting their strategies.

As adoption progresses, the Fibonacci multiples continue to taper downward, suggesting the indicator’s utility will diminish once Bitcoin achieves mainstream adoption.

Implications for Investors

For investors, the Golden Ratio Multiplier provides actionable insights into where Bitcoin’s price may encounter resistance or consolidation. Here’s what the data suggests:

Short-Term Outlook: The $100,000 level is a critical resistance. If Bitcoin fails to clear this barrier, a period of consolidation may follow.Medium-Term Outlook: Successfully breaking $100,000 could set the stage for a rally to $127,000, the 2x multiple. Historically, such breakouts have been accompanied by significant volume and renewed investor interest.Long-Term Perspective: While the Golden Ratio Multiplier remains effective for analyzing Bitcoin’s adoption phase, its predictive power may wane as Bitcoin matures into a stable asset class.

Conclusion

The Golden Ratio Multiplier, created by Philip Swift in 2019, has consistently demonstrated its value as a predictive tool for Bitcoin’s price movements. By analyzing Fibonacci multiples of the 350DMA, the indicator offers a roadmap for understanding Bitcoin’s long-term price trajectory and identifying key resistance levels.

As the Chart of the Day reveals, Bitcoin is once again testing the $100,000 resistance level. A successful rally through this barrier could pave the way for a move toward $127,000, offering significant opportunities for investors who understand the dynamics at play.

To explore live data and stay informed on the latest analysis, visit bitcoinmagazinepro.com.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

The Islamic conceptualisation of finance is built around a set of core principles which give primacy to honesty, fairness and accountability in trade and transactions. As such, Islamic finance seeks uphold justice, transparency, and shared prosperity in economic systems. Arguably, fiat currency achieves the exact opposite of these principles, since it introduces uncertainty, speculation and inequities that punish the poor, who earn and spend fiat, and favours the rich who invest in assets that benefit from inflation. In this backdrop, Bitcoin emerges as a solution that aligns remarkably well with Islamic finance principles. This article explores why Bitcoin, with its decentralization, transparency, and scarcity, represents the most Islamic form of money, offering transformative potential for the Muslim world.

The foundational principles of Islamic finance include:

1. Prohibition of Riba (Usury):

Interest-based lending, where money generates money without productive activity, is strictly forbidden in Islam. Riba fosters exploitation, concentrates wealth, and undermines social equity.

2. Prohibition of Gharar (Uncertainty):

Transactions should be free from undue speculation or ambiguity. Clear terms and honest practices are paramount.

3. Asset-Backed Economy

Trade and transactions should involve tangible assets or productive activities. Wealth must be earned through legitimate means, not through gambling or speculative bubbles.

4. Risk Sharing

Islamic finance emphasizes equity-based partnerships where profit and loss are shared, ensuring mutual benefit and fairness in all financial dealings.

5. Justice and Equity:

Wealth distribution should serve societal needs, promoting fairness and reducing economic disparities.

One could very credibly argue that the current fiat-based monetary system flagrantly violates these tenets. Central banks set interest rates that underpin the entire fiat system, institutionalizing usury. Money created out of debt inherently generates unearned profits for lenders while indebting others, fostering exploitation and inequality. The fiat system disproportionately benefits those closest to the source of money creation (e.g., banks, governments) at the expense of ordinary people. This “Cantillon Effect” exacerbates wealth inequality, violating Islamic values of equity and justice.

Fiat currencies are prone to inflation and devaluation due to their unlimited supply. This creates uncertainty and speculative behaviour, further destabilizing economies and harming the most vulnerable. Unlike gold or tangible assets, fiat money is not backed by any physical commodity. It is merely a promise of value, eroding trust and violating Islam’s emphasis on tangible, asset-backed wealth. Centralized control of money by a few institutions undermines accountability, fosters corruption, and allows governments to manipulate currencies to serve political agendas, often to the detriment of their citizens. These systemic flaws have led to financial crises, inequality, and the erosion of societal trust.

Bitcoin, the world’s first decentralized digital currency, aligns closely with the ethical and economic teachings of Islam. Bitcoin operates without interest-based mechanisms. Its decentralized nature ensures that no central authority can create money out of thin air or profit unjustly through usury. Every Bitcoin transaction is recorded on an immutable public ledger, the blockchain. This ensures honesty and accountability, eliminating the uncertainty associated with opaque fiat systems.

Bitcoin’s supply is capped at 21 million coins, making it a deflationary asset. Its scarcity mirrors the attributes of gold, historically accepted as sound money in Islamic societies. Unlike fiat money, Bitcoin is not controlled by any government or institution. Its decentralized network empowers individuals and fosters equity, aligning with Islam’s emphasis on justice and fairness.

Bitcoin is not a speculative promise; it is earned through “proof-of-work,” which requires significant energy and computational effort. This tangible cost of production imbues it with intrinsic value, resonating with Islamic financial principles. Bitcoin allows anyone with an internet connection to participate in the global economy. This inclusivity aligns with Islam’s vision of reducing economic barriers and promoting universal access to financial resources. Through its adherence to these principles, Bitcoin offers a viable alternative to the exploitative fiat system, paving the way for a more just and equitable financial future.

Adopting Bitcoin on a wide scale could revolutionize the Muslim world, unlocking unprecedented economic opportunities. Many Muslim-majority countries suffer from chronic inflation, eroding the value of their fiat currencies and impoverishing their citizens. Bitcoin’s deflationary nature provides a hedge against inflation, preserving wealth over time. Millions of Muslims remain unbanked due to lack of access to traditional financial services. Bitcoin’s decentralized system allows individuals to store and transfer wealth securely without relying on banks, fostering economic empowerment. Muslim-majority countries are among the largest recipients of remittances. Bitcoin enables faster, cheaper, and more secure cross-border transactions, reducing reliance on costly intermediaries.

By decentralizing money creation and eliminating the privileges of central banks, Bitcoin ensures a fairer distribution of wealth, addressing economic disparities that plague many Islamic societies. Bitcoin’s transparent system facilitates the development of Shariah-compliant financial products and services, promoting ethical investment opportunities in line with Islamic values. Bitcoin enables nations to reduce their dependence on the US dollar and other foreign currencies, strengthening their economic sovereignty and resilience. By enabling trustless, borderless transactions, Bitcoin fosters trade within the global Muslim community, encouraging innovation and economic integration across nations.

Bitcoin is more than just a technological innovation; it is a financial system rooted in justice, transparency, and equity—values deeply embedded in Islamic teachings. As the Muslim world grapples with the challenges of fiat-based economies, Bitcoin offers a path toward economic independence, financial inclusion, and societal prosperity. By embracing Bitcoin, the Muslim world can align its financial systems with the timeless principles of Islam, paving the way for a fairer and more sustainable future.

This is a guest post by Ghaffar Hussain. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.